2011 NBA Finals: The Big Three vs. the Big German

May 31, 2011 4 Comments

Out of all the possibilities for the NBA Finals, the Miami Heat will face the Dallas Mavericks in what looks to be one of the greatest Finals rematches of all time. Much has changed since these two teams last met. For starters, the Miami Heat turned from a slightly above average team to a multi-year dynasty in waiting. Nearly every sports writer and media outlet has taken the easy way out, criticizing Lebron and the Heat for pursuing help to win championships. In fact, I think the only positive Heat articles came from yours truly…Stick’s Picks. Believe it or not, but this Heat team has actually been underrated all season long. In an era where social media dominates the sports industry, it is remarkable how the Heat managed to win 58 games and lock up the two seed in the East. Not to mention their dismantling of the Celtics and Bulls, where the Heat held a huge talent disparity in each series. And people thought Derrick Rose was the MVP!

The Heat’s Finals opponent…my Dallas Mavericks. In contrast to the Heat’s wide media coverage, the Mavericks seemed to fly under the radar the entire season. I’ll be the first to admit, this Maverick playoff run has caught me way off guard. First the Texas Rangers, now the Mavericks. Dallas sports are running at an all time high. What’s next, the Cowboys in the Super Bowl?

As mentioned in my midseason article (link), this is the best Mavericks team of all time. The 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks have finally put the “D” back in the Big D. Adding defensive centerpiece Tyson Chandler has done wonders for this Dallas team. What’s not to love about this Dallas team? A veteran-ridden lineup with two strong defensive presences down low, an array of elite perimeter defenders, a deep bench, plenty of sharpshooters, and quite possibly one of the best shooting big men of all time. Could this finally be the year Dirk and the Mavs breakthrough? I know Mark Cuban sure thinks so.

In what is the one-year anniversary of Stick’s Picks, there is not a more exciting story for me to cover. Having been driving the Heat bandwagon all season, I have finally met my match. If you haven’t figured out by now, I am very biased towards the Mavericks and would love nothing more than to see Dirk and Dallas finally win a title. As much as I would love to see Dallas win a title, the Lebron has been on a mission even since “The Decision.” With Game 1 beginning tonight, here is my preview and analysis in what looks to be an excellent Finals matchup.

First things first, the Miami Heat are the heavy favorite to win this series (as they should be, they only have two of the best players in the NBA). Dallas has won both season meetings between the two teams, but is this as relevant as it sounds? Both of these teams have vastly improved from their midseason form, and have fittingly been the two hottest playoff teams. This Maverick team has won 10 of their past 11 games including, embarrassing the two-time defending champs in four, and beating the younger, more athletic Thunder in only five games. Funny to think how after their massive collapse in Game 4 in the Portland series, that they would win 10 of their 11. The Miami Heat run has been no different, winning 9 of the past 11 games, it is tough to imagine a team that can hang with the “Big three” for a best-of-seven series. This looks like a well-matched series to me. Here is my complete position breakdown.

Point Guard: Interesting matchup. On one hand you have Mike Bibby who is years past his Sacramento days, but can still hit the three ball and is a playoff veteran. However, Jason Kidd has rejuvenated himself in his second stint in Dallas, and is sometimes the 2nd-best player on the team. If you are going into a playoff series, Kidd would be a unanimous pick to run point over Bibby. One of the greatest point guards to ever play the game gives Dallas the point guard edge. Edge: Dallas

Shooting guard: Dwyane Wade vs. Deshawn Stevenson? As much as I admire Stevenson’s tenacity and confidence (primarily on defense), Wade is the 2nd-best player in the NBA and don’t think I have forgotten about what he did in the 2006 Finals vs. Dallas. Edge: Miami

Small Forward: Don’t get me wrong, Marion has surprised me with his elite level of defense in both the Lakers and Thunder series. But (and this is a big BUT), Lebron James is the best talent this league has seen since Michael Jordan. Or in Scottie Pippen’s words, “Lebron may be better than Jordan.” Edge: Miami

Power Forward: Chris Bosh has had a great season. However, Bosh hasn’t really lived up to expectations ever since he threw his name into the formation of the Miami Big Three (It really should be the Big Two but that’s just me). As for Dirk’s playoff run thus far: 28.4 PPG, 51.7 FG%, 51.6 3-pt FG%, and 92.9 FT%. And the more amazing thing… those percentages are slightly down from last year’s playoffs. Edge: Dallas

Center: My how things have changed since Dallas has had the better Center, Tyson Chandler, in all three of their playoff series (and this series is no different). Miami Heat’s Joel Anthony has been a significant asset to this Heat team, but Dallas’ Tyson Chandler not only has improved the Mavs’ defense but has also given this team a new defensive identity. If you give Tyson a scoring power forward and great passing point guard…then watch him flourish (see 2008 New Orleans Hornets). The funny part about this is Dallas paid Brendan Haywood $55 million just last summer. I’d like to thank MJ for giving Chandler to Dallas in exchange for the Erick Dampier’s lazy carcass (If only he would have done it before Haywood’s massive contract). Edge: Dallas

Bench: Lets see: does the Miami Heat have a bench? Answer: No. And, other than Udonis Haslem, I can’t name one other decent player on the Heat bench. The Mavericks have stacked themselves with scorers, rebounders, and defenders to have arguably the deepest bench in the league. Jason Terry and JJ. Barea are two guards capable of scoring 20+ any given night. Corey Brewer hasn’t been getting much playing time, but I expect that to change this series given his great defensive skill set. Last year’s Mavs starting center, Brendan Haywood, has provided great relief for Chandler and is still an above-average rebounder and shot-blocker. Last but not least, the Serbian Sharpshooter, Peja Stojakovic, was an absolute steal for the Mavericks. No wonder this Maverick’s bench tied the Lakers’ ENTIRE TEAM in the series-clinching game 4 (86 Mavs bench pts vs. Lakers 86 total pts). Edge: Dallas

Coach: As great of a job Eric Spoelstra has done this season in managing the Miami circus, Rick Carlisle has been slightly better. I’m not sure if you were watching the Lakers series, but Carlisle SEVERELY outcoached the great Zenmaster Phil Jackson (the same Phil Jackson who has 11 rings)! And was anyone more outcoached than Scotty Brooks in the Mavs-Thunder series? Edge: Dallas

Stick’s Pick: Part of me wishes it wasn’t these two teams squaring off because I would love for each team to win a title. But let’s be honest, Dallas and its fans deserve a title (Homer Alert)! However, the Miami Heat has the X-factor. Imagine if the Mavericks had another player the caliber of Dirk Nowitzki. The Miami Heat have two players of that caliber. I would love to see Dallas take home the trophy but Lebron and Wade just seem too talented for this Dallas team. Hopefully Dallas can prove me wrong once again, but until then… Stick’s Pick: Miami in seven

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The Best NBA Playoffs…EVER?

April 16, 2011 2 Comments

One of my favorite times of the year: baseball is underway and its playoff time in the NBA. Forgive me for taking a hiatus the past few weeks; I’ve been working with NBA Futurecast and the Austin Toros. My NBA playoff picks article has been a personal favorite of mine, so without further adieu…my picks:

First Round

Chicago vs. Indiana- Starting off with the best record vs. the worst record; I’m sure the windy city loves the fact that the Bulls once again have the best record in the NBA. D-Rose continues his MVP campaign peaking at the right time. This team has all the tools to succeed come playoff time: a plethora of rebounders and shot-blockers, low post scoring, and of course that one superstar capable of taking a game over. As for Indiana, NO TEAM should be allowed to make the playoffs with a sub .500 record (Indiana is eight games under .500 in fact.) When Chicago has four of the best five guys in a series, the result shouldn’t be close. Unlike the great 1990’s rivalry between these two teams (MJ vs. Reggie), Derrick Rose should have no problem taking care of this awful Pacers team.
Stick’s Pick: Chicago in four

Miami vs. Philadelphia- The quest for eight titles begins here. After all the publicity, all the expectations, all the criticisms…it is all erased come playoff time. Given how much I’ve heard about the Heat’s disappointing regular season, it is amazing that they still achieved 58 wins and a two seed in the East. Not to mention, there are no hotter teams right now than Miami and Chicago (more on this later.) Their opponent, Philadelphia, has been flying under the radar all season. Andre Iguodala has emerged as quite possibly the league’s best perimeter defender (which will come in very handy this series), and Doug Collins has rebuilt this team for the future. Despite this, Miami should be on cruise control throughout this series. Lebron and Wade both had remarkable regular seasons as usual, but these players enter another gear come playoff time.
Stick’s Pick: Miami in four

Boston vs. New York- From the 1990’s Bulls-Pacers rivalry to an even more storied matchup; whenever these two cities matchup in a sporting event, there is no love lost. Dating back to the Bill Russell-Willis Reed days, it is nice to once again have relevant basketball being played between these two teams. Boston surprised most last year, making yet another Finals run and coming within minutes of another NBA championship. And yet another season…players get older, the Eastern Conference gets better, and of course your GM trades away your starting center. It is unreal how unpopular this Perkins trade has been. From nearly every sportswriter, NBA analyst to even the Celtics players, I haven’t come across one person who truly believes this was a good deal for the Celtics (except Danny Ainge of course.) Sadly, I think this trade may have all but squandered this year’s title hopes for the Celtics. This series will be no cakewalk for Boston either. When the Knicks have arguably the two best players in the series, anything’s possible. However, in the playoffs, you MUST play defense. And as we all know, that concept doesn’t appear in Mike D’Antoni’s scheme. Boston might have a scare, but experience should pull through in the end.
Stick’s Pick: Boston in six

Orlando vs. Atlanta- A rematch of last year’s playoff beat down: in case you missed it, last year Atlanta was bounced out of the playoffs by none other than Orlando, losing in a sweep by an average of 25 POINTS PER GAME. So what’s changed? Not much. If anything, Orlando cut dead weight with Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis, and added Agent Zero (or agent nine in this case). Dwight Howard is having his best statistical season ever (some stat geeks believe he is this year’s true MVP, most notably ESPN’s own John Hollinger). What is stopping me from picking yet another sweep? That’s right, nothing.
Stick’s Pick: Orlando in four

San Antonio vs. Memphis- Wait, what? The Memphis Grizzlies tanked on purpose so they could be able to matchup with the playoff-veteran San Antonio Spurs? You can’t make this up. As if Gregg Poppovich and his four NBA championships needed any extra motivation come playoff time. As long as Tim Duncan is healthy and anchoring the offense and defense, pencil this Spurs into at least the second round. There is no better team than San Antonio at taking away what the other team does best, and quite frankly I’m not sure what Memphis does best. I guess double team Zach Randolph? Maybe this series would last longer if Rudy Gay wasn’t out, maybe not?
Stick’s Pick: Spurs in five

LA Lakers vs. New Orleans- Do I need to say anything here? The Los Angeles Lakers are two-time defending NBA champions, and are on pace to make their fourth-consecutive trip to the NBA Finals (something two teams have done EVER). Unless Chris Paul channels his inner Isaiah for a majority of this series, it’s tough not picking a sweep here. Even with a healthy Davis West (currently out for the season), LA won all four meetings in the regular season. I don’t see much else to say here…moving on.
Stick’s Pick: Lakers in four

Dallas vs. Portland- I’ve done my research, listened to all the expert’s picks… and everybody is picking Portland. So how is Dallas favored to win this series? I haven’t come across one person who has picked the Mavericks to get past Portland (but Vegas still has Dallas as the odds-on favorite). I think there is something to be said when the media and everybody you know are calling an upset. I’m going to stray away from the norm and pick my Mavs to somehow get past Portland. As great as Portland’s frontcourt may be, I’m sure Coach Carlisle will have something planned. And last but not least, Dirk Nowitzki is one of the top ten basketball players ever in the playoffs. Don’t believe me? Look it up (top 10 in PPG, top 8 in PER). My first upset pick of the first round, if you can call it that.
Stick’s Pick: Dallas in seven

OKC vs. Denver- This series may turn out to be the most entertaining of the first round. The Nuggets sure look good for having lost their best player (tie it to the Ewing theory). This team finally has an identity with its run and gun style. Who would have thought losing Carmelo would make this team better? However, playoff basketball slows the game down and relies on superstars to carry teams through. This high-paced Denver team isn’t made for the playoffs. And of course, I love the Thunder as always. More on this later.
Stick’s Pick: Thunder in five

Second Round

Quick question, has the second round NBA playoffs ever set up to be this good? I don’t think so. D-rose’s Bulls vs. Howard’s Magic, the hated rivals Heat vs. Celtics, the up-and-coming Thunder vs. the grizzly veteran Spurs, and the first ever Dirk vs. Kobe in the playoffs. Sounds pretty intriguing to me.

Chicago vs. Orlando- As great of a season as Dwight Howard has had (23 PPG, 14 RPG, 2.4 BPG), I believe it ends here. The Bulls are one of the few teams who have enough big bodies to throw at Dwight, and there is no guard capable of slowing Derrick Rose. Orlando is going to need a strong series from their guards J-Rich and Jameer to have any hope in this series. I’m aware of the Magic’s strong playoff experience, but something doesn’t seem right about this year’s team. I can’t put my finger on it; I just know the Bulls will be too much for the Magic to overcome.
Stick’s Pick: Bulls in six

Miami vs. Boston- SPOILER ALERT: You heard it hear first, the winner of this series will not only go to the Finals; they will win the Finals. The Celtics have been the Heat’s Kryptonite all season long. That is, until recently. The Heat are heading into the playoffs having won 15 of the final 18 games. Most notably, an April 10th beat down of this Boston team 100-77. Yes, Boston had their way with Miami in the beginning of the season, but as we all know it takes time for a team to gel (especially a team with an entirely new roster like Miami). As much as the media has been criticizing Danny Ainge for trading Perkins for Jeff Green, this series is the reason. Ainge desperately needed a swingman to relieve Ray Allen and Paul Pierce from logging big minutes in a playoff series, and also adding another body to throw on Lebron or Wade (not like it would matter). This will be the first true test for the Super-team Miami Heat. If they pass it, LOOK OUT! It’s going to be close, but I love my chances with the two best players in the Eastern Conference on the SAME TEAM. At least this time, Lebron will finish the series (see 2010 Cavs-Celtics playoff series for more).
Stick’s Pick: Heat in seven

San Antonio vs. OKC- The cliché matchup of the young vs. the old. The Spurs shocked the world, nearly dominating the regular season. And, the young Thunder were many expert’s dark horse pick to represent the West in the NBA finals. So something’s gotta give. As I mentioned earlier, the Spurs and Poppovich have a knack for shutting down what their opponent does best. And simply put, if the Spurs shut down/contain Kevin Durant, the Thunder have no hope in this series. As surprising as it sounds, I think the Thunder matchup better vs. the Lakers than the Spurs. It is no coincidence that the Spurs swept the season series between these two teams. The Thunder are getting there, but I like the Spurs to make another run. Call me crazy, but until the Thunder can win a road playoff game, I’ll take 4-time champion Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs.
Stick’s Pick: Spurs in six

Dallas vs. Los Angeles- Interesting stat I heard on Bill Simmons BS Report the other day: never has there been a playoff series between Dirk’s Mavs and Kobe’s Lakers. No time better than the present. I would love to see the Lakers get knocked out here, but I see no possible scenario for this to happen. No disrespect to my Mavs, but the Lakers have four of the best five players in this series (including the best player). In their most recent March 31st matchup, the Lakers manhandled the Mavs 110-82 despite Dirk notching one of his best all-around games of the season. That’s the 2010-11 Mavs in a nutshell: excellent effort by Dirk only resulting in a loss. I made the mistake by picking Dallas to beat LA last year, and this year I’m not nearly as confident. Ask me a few months ago and I would have Dallas in the NBA Finals. Now? Not so much.
Stick’s Pick: Lakers in six

Conference Finals

Not many upsets up to this point. Actually no upsets! In the NBA, picking chalk (all favorites) is always a safe bet. Two great matchups highlight the NBA Conference Finals.

Chicago vs. Miami- Great matchup on paper! Miami’s big three (Lebron, Wade, Bosh) vs. Chicago’s big four (Rose, Boozer, Noah, Deng). Chicago has won all season meetings, but I like Miami in this series. I know Derrick Rose is having a fantastic season, but by the numbers, Lebron is more valuable to his team. Whenever Lebron can silently put up numbers like 27 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 7 APG, and 51% shooting, something’s wrong. Are these the stats we have come to expect from the great King James? Quite frankly, yes! So why all the hoopla about Derrick Rose being a near consensus MVP pick? I guess the media is tired of Lebron after spending all summer analyzing and breaking down “The Decision.” Don’t think for one second, Lebron wasn’t playing for another MVP trophy, and he is going to take out his frustrations on this inexperienced Bulls team. Can you sense my Lebron bias yet?
Stick’s Pick: Heat in seven

San Antonio vs. Los Angeles- This matchup never seems to get old. Let me put this into perspective, nine of the past twelve seasons, one of these teams has won the NBA Finals. That’s absolutely remarkable! These teams split the season series, and this matchup is as close as they come. This Lakers team has become rejuvenated since the All Star Break, notching a 19-6 record. And five of those losses came in a recent losing streak, where Phil was resting his team for the playoffs. It’s not going to be easy for either team, but the way the Spurs have been coasting down the stretch, I have my doubts they can beat the two-time defending champion Lakers. I had the fortunate opportunity to speak with Tony Parker Sr. (Tony Parker’s dad) in my Sports Law class, and I asked him one question: Who do you have? Spurs or Lakers in the Finals? Of course he was for Tony and the Spurs but I think there is merit in Kobe Bryant (and the refs) being too much to overcome.
Stick’s Pick: Lakers in six

NBA Finals

Miami vs. Los Angeles- Finally! The matchup we have all been waiting for! In one corner, the two-time defending champion Lakers, and in the other corner, the NBA’s villains…the Miami Heat. In order for the Lakers to continue their quest for a three-peat, they must get past Miami’s big three. Both of these teams are heavy Vegas favorites to reach the NBA finals (Miami at 8 to 5, and Los Angeles as 1 to 1). Here’s a stat nugget for you: the Lakers fourth straight trip to the NBA finals would put them in elite company. Only Russell’s Celtics and Magic’s Lakers are the only two teams to accomplish the feat (something not even Jordan’s Bulls or Shaq’s Lakers accomplished). As I mentioned earlier, Lakers came out of the All Star break winning 16 of their next 17 games. And that one loss was to… that’s right, you guessed it, the Miami Heat. In fact, Miami has emerged victorious in both of these team meetings this year. David Stern and the NBA would absolutely love this Finals matchup .This is a tough one so lets break down the matchups:
Point Guard: Bibby vs. Fisher               Edge: even
Shooting Guard: Kobe vs.Wade           Edge: even (YES, I said it!)
Small forward: Lebron vs. Artest         Edge: Heat
Power Forward: Bosh vs. Gasol           Edge: slightly Lakers
Center: Bynum vs. some Heat center  Edge: Lakers
I believe the Heat’s time is now, and honestly nobody wants to see the Lakers win again.
Stick’s Picks: Heat in seven

If my instincts are correct, then this could be one of the best NBA postseasons ever. Until then!

Let me hear your feedback and/or comments.

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Bring on the Madness

March 16, 2011 5 Comments

Its back. Finally, March Madness is upon us. It’s the only event where the predictions are wrong every year and nothing could be more enjoyable for a sports fan. Quite perplexing, but we can’t all be winners like Charlie Sheen.

After 30,213 hours of studying trends and pulling up as much research as possible, I think it’s safe to say… my Bracket is set. Like any ordinary human being, I like to think that practice makes perfect. Going on roughly my eighth year of bracketology, it’s only natural that I improve with age. (This isn’t college or grad school where after a couple years, you graduate. In bracketology, there is no graduation. With every year comes something new.) As I graduate from college this May, I continue my degree in bracketology.

For those having Stick’s Picks withdrawals over the past few weeks, I’d like to welcome myself back as I analyze everything of note in this upcoming NCAA tournament. Beginning with the toughest region to the easiest, here are my picks and some last minute bracket advice.

East Region

Elite Eight: Kentucky over North Carolina
Sweet 16: Kentucky over Ohio State, North Carolina over Syracuse

Some quick things to note: Ohio State is the top overall seed in the bracket and has been blessed with the toughest path to the final four. Gotta love the selection committee! Other teams to keep an eye on in the East are Kentucky, North Carolina and Syracuse. Unlike the media, I do not see Ohio State cruising through this region. Honestly, I can’t love any Big Ten team that much. Most notably, I love this Kentucky team. They seemed to go unnoticed this year without the overwhelming talents and personalities of John Wall and Demarcus Cousins. No problem, just add a few more freshmen all-Americans, and do it again… the patented John Calipari motto. However, I have them falling short to the Tar Heels of North Carolina. Hey, if Calipari couldn’t get the job done with John Wall and Demarcus, I’d be shocked if Brandon Knight and Terrance Jones were the answer. This North Carolina team has won 14 of its past 16 games, with its only losses coming to defending champion Duke. They lead the nation in rebounds, and what’s not to love about freshman sensation Harrison Barnes. North Carolina returns to familiar territory in the final four.

West Region

Elite Eight: Duke over San Diego State
Sweet 16: Duke over Texas, San Diego State over UConn

First things first, How did TEXAS get a #4 seed? I understand we stumbled down the stretch, but sticking us with a sweet 16 matchup vs. the defending champions? Ouch! Come March, things never get easier for Rick Barnes and the Longhorns. Having obtained a number one ranking early last year, it seems like every season, Texas gets sent home early. This Texas Longhorn team has failed to make the sweet 16 four times out of the last six years. And that’s with Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, DJ Augustin, and much more NBA-caliber talent. Maybe this could be the year Texas breaks through. Let’s hope so!

In terms of this region, I have mostly chalk (to the rookies, chalk means no upsets). I spent hours debating whether or not I should pick the monumental upset of Bucknell over UConn but couldn’t pull the trigger. Expect UConn to lose much earlier than expected. If you’ve watched any bracket coverage lately, I’m sure you are aware UConn won the Big East tournament by winning five games in five nights. And I hear NBA players complaining about back-to-backs! Kemba and the Huskies will fall short this year despite their remarkable Big East run. The two seed, San Diego State Aztecs, is the two seed in this region, and this team looks solid. Led by former Fab Five coach, Steve Fisher, this team has shocked the nation with an astounding 32-2 record (with only losses coming to Jimmer Fredette’s BYU). But hey, if Steve Fisher couldn’t get the job done with Chris Webber, Juwan Howard, and Jalen Rose while at Michigan, expect nothing different.

In the end, I chose the defending champions, Duke, to move onto Houston for the final four. You have no idea how hard this was for me. Up until a few weeks ago, I debated on purchasing a ticket to this year’s Final Four only to witness the typical Texas late-season collapse. If Texas were in the Southeast, or even Southwest region, I wouldn’t have hesitated to place them in the Final Four. Texas falls to Duke once again. And y’all thought I was a homer.

Southwest Region

Elite Eight: Kansas over Purdue
Sweet 16: Kansas over Louisville, Purdue over Notre Dame

This Kansas Jayhawk team fits every formula of a winning NCAA tournament team. Solid guard shooting, solid post play with the help of the Morris brothers, and a coach whose been there before (Bill Self won the 2008 championship with Kansas.) Out of all my final four picks, Kansas is by far my most confident choice. It might be my Big 12 bias, but this team has what it takes to cut down the nets in Houston.

As for the others in the San Antonio region, only the Purdue Boilermakers can match up with the depth of Kansas. Four seed Louisville doesn’t have near the talent of years past, and two seed Notre Dame relies too much on the three ball. I’m going to have to see it to believe it before I pick the Fighting Irish to advance far in the tournament. But who knows? After all, tomorrow is St. Patrick’s Day.

I’ve witnessed Kansas dismantling of the Longhorns last Saturday and this team has all the pieces. After watching more and more Kansas games, it still amazes me how Texas beat them earlier in the season.

Southeast Region

Elite Eight: St. Johns over Pittsburgh
Sweet 16: Pittsburgh over Kansas St., St. Johns over Florida

By far the weakest region of the bracket. In fact, I have the two, three, and four seeds falling out rather early. Let me begin my rant on the Southeast region. As I mentioned, TEXAS got a #4 seed with BYU and Florida receiving a three and two seed respectively. You can’t advance far in the tourney with only a one man team…sorry BYU. I’m not going to trust a team (Wisconsin) who lost to 10 seed Penn State 36-33 in BASKETBALL! And, I honestly forgot Florida basketball even existed (not a good sign). I’ve never been sold on Pittsburgh and from the looks of it neither is Las Vegas (Pittsburgh has by far the worst odds of any one seed to win the NCAA championship, nearly double that of the other three one seeds).

BUT, I love the five and six seeds in this region to make a big splash. The five seed, Kansas State, led by veteran guard Jacob Pullen is a dangerous team as evident in their elite eight run last season. With all this said, here is my upset special. Give me six seed St. Johns to win this region and head to the Final Four! Not convinced? Everybody knows in order to advance in the tournament, you must be able play defense and beat the big dogs. Let’s take a quick a glance at St. John’s tournament resume: wins over UConn, Pitt, Notre Dame, and Duke just to list a few. That’s two tournament one seeds, a two seed, and a three seed. Not bad for Steve Lavin’s St John’s Red Storm (sweet mascot name).

Notable Upsets

March Madness wouldn’t be madness without a few upsets. Before I get to my final four and championship picks, here a few possible upsets to keep an eye on.

East- #4 Kentucky over #1 Ohio State, #12 Clemson over #5 West Virginia
West- What! I have no upsets. Let’s play hopscotch, we have too much chalk!
Southwest- #11 VCU over #6 Georgetown, #10 Florida State over #7 Texas A&M, and I guess #3 Purdue over # 2 Notre Dame if you call it an upset
Southeast- #13 Belmont over #4 Wisconsin, #7 UCLA over #2 Florida, and of course #6 St Johns over #3 BYU and into the Final Four.

I would be deemed insane if I said I had any great confidence in any of these upset picks, but that’s March madness for you. Proceed with caution!

Final Four

Regional Semifinal: Duke over UNC, Kansas over St. Johns
National Championship: Duke over Kansas

Yes, give me Duke to win again. Picking the defending Duke Blue Devils to repeat as national champions was too tough to pass up. I said before selection Sunday that Duke and Kansas were the only two teams I would be confident putting into the final four, and I’m sticking with my gut. Now that Duke’s freshman point guard, Kyrie Irving, is returning to the lineup, this team looks better than ever. Kyrie Irving resembles a poor man’s Chris Paul, and that’s good enough for me. The first advice any experienced bracketologist will tell you: guard play wins tournament games. With the combo of Irving and Smith, and Coach K calling the shots, I like my chances. If these picks hold true, that would mean storied rivals UNC and Duke would match up for the fourth time this season (this time in the Final Four). What a story that would be!

There you have it, Stick’s Picks first annual bracket. Stick with it and you just may be a winner, or in the words of the great Charlie Sheen, “WINNING!”

Let me hear your thoughts.

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A Texas-sized Super Bowl

February 6, 2011 3 Comments

No team has ever won seven Super Bowls! No team has ever won the Super Bowl as a six seed! Never has a Super Bowl been played in Dallas, Texas! You see what I’m getting at here?

It’s a Super Bowl of firsts. Welcome to the first annual Stick’s Pick Super Bowl Preview. First of all, I’d like to note that I am 7-3 on picks heading into Super Bowl 45 (soon-to-be 8-3). If you have been following my picks throughout the playoffs, this should come as no surprise to you. As predicted from the start (link), the Green Bay Packers are back in the Super Bowl taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers who are going for their record seventh Super Bowl title.

Take all the major sporting events and combine those into one three-hour game. What do you have? The Super Bowl! No other game draws half the hype or intrigue as the Super Bowl. Consistently drawing 100+ million viewers a year, there is no bigger stage. Just ask the folks on Madison Avenue (side note: this is one of the few times a year I actually take the time to watch all the commercials. Praise DVR!)

First things first, why does the NFL keep saying the Super Bowl is being held in North Texas. Is the city of Dallas trademarked? Or did Jerry Jones specifically say not to mention Dallas to remind the public of the Cowboys woes this season? And the SNOW? Having attended the NBA All Star game last February in Dallas, I can say that somehow the sports and weather Gods have topped themselves once again. NEVER, and I mean NEVER have I witnessed this much snow in the great state of Texas (This isn’t the usual black ice snow either, I’m talking the powder!)

As I was saying, the Super Bowl is MUCH more than the game itself. It might be the extra week of hype that propels it to immortal levels but this game keeps getting bigger and bigger. (On another side note: There is absolutely NO WAY the NFL has a lockout come next season. Football is the biggest it’s been during my lifetime, and you don’t have to be a mathematician to realize they could be leaving BILLIONS of dollars on the table.)

The Matchup
Arguably the three most storied NFL franchises are involved in this year’s Super Bowl: The Green Bay Packers (a team whose stadium holds more seats than the city’s population) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers (Six-time Super Bowl Champion and a national symbol of the American working class). What an excellent matchup! Did I mention it is being held in the largest, most ridiculously grandiose stadium in the country? Jerry World (home to America’s team Dallas Cowboys) is also on display in what it is prime to be an epic weekend.

I’m not going to sit here and analyze statistics, because let’s face it. When it comes to the Super Bowl, all bets are out the window (literally). Desperately seeking a pattern in past Super Bowl champions, I’ve concluded that numbers can’t predict the Super Bowl. As the NFL’s two best sack and scoring defenses go head to head, we are in store for another classic.

Why Pittsburgh will win: Lets see, the Steelers will win their 7th Super Bowl title by simply playing Steelers football. If you happened to catch any Pittsburgh’s games during the playoffs, you may have noticed their physical mentality. Run the ball, Play defense, and don’t turn the ball over… simple formula.

The Steelers’ current offensive line woes have been hyped more than the game itself. Let me put this in perspective: Pittsburgh has so many injured lineman that in some spots, they are on their third or fourth-string starter. To make matters worse, their rookie Pro Bowl center (Maurkice Pouncey) is unavailable for this game. However, something tells me Pittsburgh may manage to avoid this glaring weakness and scrap together a patchwork offensive line. It’s going to be a challenge as they go up against a defense that has racked up 47 sacks (2nd in the NFL- trailing only behind Pittsburgh’s 48 sacks).

I’ll say this for certain, if Pittsburgh becomes a one-dimensional offense (passing offense most likely), then they have NO chance in this game. This isn’t your typical NFL defense. In fact, both Pittsburgh and Green Bay rank one and two in the NFL in defensive points allowed. If you take this game strictly by the books, then neither of these teams SHOULD score more than 20 points. If Pittsburgh is going to win, they need to hope for a low scoring defensive battle (Because if the Packers manage more than 20+ points, mark my words Green Bay will win.) Which brings me to:

Why Green Bay will win: I’ll be honest, ever since the Cowboys choked away another season, Green Bay has been my dark horse to make it to the Super Bowl. If you’ve read my previous playoff articles then you know I’ve been on the Packers bandwagon. ALL ABOARD!

As mentioned, the more points scored in this game, the better the Packer’s chances. Much has been made about the Packers six-seed, and their ability to win all their playoff games on the road. But let’s be honest, if it weren’t for the array of Green Bay injuries, this team had the talent to rack up 13 or 14 wins. Star running back out for the season (Ryan Grant), star tight end out for the season (Jamichael Finley), and Aaron Rodgers multiple concussions just to name a few.

Green Bay will win the Super Bowl if Aaron Rodgers and their offense play well. It’s that simple. You put up points against the “Steel Curtain”, and then you may have a chance. And don’t get me started on the Packers offense indoors. In three games this season, Rodgers best-overall games have come indoors (notching a 115 QB rating, 650 pass yards, 5 TDs with just one interception). Did you happen to watch the Falcons-Packers game at the Georgia Dome a few weeks back? 48 points later… the Packers strike again. Once again, if it comes down to each team’s offense, its going to be tough to match up with the green and yellow.

Stick’s Pick: After hitting 70% of my picks thus far, it all comes down to this. It truly doesn’t matter if you don’t pick the correct Super Bowl winner. With all this in mind, my gut feeling tells me this will be a shootout. Throw out the numbers, it is almost a proven fact that when the two best defenses square off, points are scored. So without further adeiu, I’m riding the Packers bandwagon one more week:
Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 27.

Aaron Rodgers finally gets a real Championship belt

This is the first Super Bowl since 2000 to have a spread of three points or less. So get ready for Super Bowl 45… it’s going to be one for the ages. What do you think? Give me your comments and let me hear from you.

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Stick’s Picks: Conference Championship Edition

January 22, 2011 1 Comment

Beating the Steelers once is tough enough, let alone twice

Almost there! Just four teams remain in what has been a great NFL playoffs. Each playoff weekend, there is at least one upset, one blowout, and one comeback win. It’s a simple formula. Even last week we had two blowouts, one comeback win, and one upset. Looking back on my picks last week (link), I failed to choose an upset (unless you count the Packers at +1). It seems a weekly upset is the trend. BUT upsetting the Patriots? Fourteen wins, a remarkable Brady season, and a plethora of offensive weapons. I have to give Rex Ryan and the Jets credit, I didn’t see this coming either. Congratulations New York jets, you talked the talk and walked the walk!

Let me start out by saying last week I was 3-1 with my picks (losing the New England upset) making my overall record of 6-2 for the playoffs (Not bad!). With 8 out of 11 playoffs games in the books, we are hitting the home stretch. Heading into my weekly NFL playoff picks, here are some quick thoughts:

1. The Atlanta Falcons are who we thought they were…an overrated dome team.
2. Lest we forget, Big Ben Roethlisberger still has two rings, so no comeback is too great for the White Mamba.
3. As great as we thought the Patriots were, we were too distracted by the luxurious locks of Tom Brady to realize their glaring O-line and defensive weaknesses.
4. Chicago is a great team. They took care of business vs. a sub .500 at home, there isn’t much to look at here (at least Cutler managed to keep the ball out of the opposing team’s hands).
5. And last but not least, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are the hottest thing since sliced bread! As Stick’s Picks predicted, Green Bay stormed into Atlanta putting up 48 points in what was an absolute beat down of a 13-3 Falcons team (now Green Bay is the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl at 8 to 5).

The Year of the Quarterback continues (link). Who would have thought Manning, Brady, and Brees would be all be ‘one and done’ from the playoffs? Astonishing! That leaves sophomore sensation Mark Sanchez as he looks to take his remarkable playoff record (4-1, ALL ON ROAD) into Pittsburgh, home to playoff veteran Big Ben Roethlisberger (9-2 career playoff record). And of course, we can’t forget about two of the most legendary football franchises.. the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears.

With only two games on the schedule, there is no excuse to miss these great games. Two defensive juggernauts and two ancient rivals square off in what may be one of the best conference championship weekends in recent memory. Enjoy my newest installment of Stick’s Picks: Conference Championship Edition.

Green Bay at Chicago- Starting the weekend off right. The oldest rivalry in the NFL face off in the playoffs for the first time in 60 YEARS. Amazing, considering the past success of these historic franchises. At first glance, this matchup seems closer than some may expect. In week 3, Chicago squeaked out a three-point home win over the Packers to begin what has been a surprisingly successful season. Fourteen weeks later facing a win or go home, Green Bay took care of business at home, beating Chicago in a low-scoring 10-3 battle. So what’s in store for the week 20 rubber match? Its tough to say. In the Packers-Bears first matchup, Green Bay dominated the Bears at every aspect of the game (minus Green Bay’s 18 penalties for 158 yards!) and still came up short. In what was a defensive battle, the week 17 rematch was all about Green Bay’s defense notching a win in the season finale.

My case for Green Bay- As you may know, there is no quarterback in the league better than Aaron Rodgers. In case you live in a hole and missed A-Rod’s remarkable game last week, let me refresh your memory. Rodgers scraped along 379 total yards, 4 touchdowns, with only FIVE incompletions (31-36 passing). Not bad for a former junior college transfer. If there is anything we learned in last year’s playoffs (Manning vs. Brees), it is to ride the hot quarterback (and Rodgers has been near-perfect these playoffs). Just a few weeks ago, Green Bay still managed to win despite Aaron Rodgers poor performance. For the Packers to continue their road winning streak, they are going to need another solid game from their defense. Another great performance from A-Rod wouldn’t hurt either.

My case for Chicago- DA Bears! Despite having one of the better defenses in the league, this Chicago team has once again flown under the radar. Sound familiar? How about in 2006 when a turnover-prove Rex Grossman led the Bears to the Super Bowl? Insert a more talented Jay Cutler (also turnover-prone), and whose saying it can’t happen again? Much of the same defensively, with the addition of sack king Julius Peppers. If Chicago is to beat Green Bay, they better hope for a low scoring game. Who am I kidding? Chicago has NO CHANCE in this game.

Stick’s Pick: Green Bay 31, Chicago 10.

NY Jets at Pittsburgh- Quite the matchup! The flashy, cocky New York Jets take on the blue-collar Pittsburgh Steelers. Surprisingly, young Mark Sanchez is following in the footsteps of Ben Roethlisberger. Lets take a quick history lesson: In Big Ben’s rookie season he took Pittsburgh to the AFC title game. In Sanchez’s rookie season, he took the Jets to the AFC title game. Big Ben’s sophomore slump turned into a Super Bowl winning season. Mark Sanchez’s sophomore season…yet to be decided. Who knows? With a 4-1 playoff record, Sanchez may have more in common with Roethlisberger than we may think. Both anchor arguably the most talented defensive units in the NFL. So whose gotta give?

My case for New York- Mark, Mark, Mark! The Jets are going to have to stray away from their typical RUN, RUN, and RUN! attack. Running the ball could be quite the challenge against Pittsburgh’s front seven. Pittsburgh led the NFL in rush defense, allowing 437 FEWER rush yards than any team in the NFL. In fact, Pittsburgh allowed 137 fewer rush yards PER GAME than the Buffalo Bills. Sanchez must duplicate his performance last week to continue this Jets incredible playoff run. At only 24, Mark Sanchez is building quite the playoff resume. If he manages to keep the ball in his team’s hands, then I love a Jets upset. And I could only imagine what Rex Ryan has in store on defense.

My case for Pittsburgh- because they are the Steelers. The Steelers remind me of the San Antonio Spurs. They aren’t flashy, but they are ALWAYS contending. With a soon-to-be Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu anchoring your defense, you have to like their chances. However, if Pittsburgh is going to beat New York, it will have to come via their running game. If you were watching last week’s game vs. the Ravens, you may have noticed Pittsburgh abandoning the run. This can’t happen vs. the Jets. With the best secondary in the NFL, the key to beating the Jets is to run it down their throat. If Manning and Brady couldn’t pass on them, what makes you think Big Ben can? If Rashard Mendenhall can manage 25+ carries, then I like the Steelers to go to their eighth Super Bowl.

Stick’s Pick: NY Jets 14, Pittsburgh 13. ANYBODY CAN BE BEAT! (link) <–MUST-SEE

There you have it, Stick’s Picks for the Super Bowl. Once again, riding the road teams in two of the toughest places to play in the NFL. You can call me crazy, or you can call me a genius. I will conclude my NFL playoff picks with a Super Bowl Champion in a few weeks. Until then!

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Stick’s Picks: NFL Playoffs Round Two

January 13, 2011 6 Comments

Bill Belichick vs. Rex Ryan Round Three is a must watch

And then there were eight! After a wild NFL wildcard weekend, we are back to square one. It doesn’t matter how well you played last week, each team starts over with a clean slate (gotta love the NFL). In my article last week, you may have noticed that I went 3-1 with my picks, only losing to a Seattle upset of New Orleans.  As for last weekend, we learned a few things:

1. The Seattle Seahawks aren’t terrible, but in no means are they great either. Looking back at my article last week (link), I am still kicking myself for not picking Seattle despite all my relevant points.
2. Against a banged up Colts team, the NY Jets proved once again that a good running game and great defense can overcome subpar quarterback play (On a related note, in no way will the Jets make it past the second quarter in New England with Mark Sanchez notching a 62 QB rating).
3. If Joe Flacco and the Ravens defense play like this, then start booking a hotel in Dallas ASAP (*Baltimore did beat Kansas City, arguably the weakest of the AFC playoff teams).
4. And lastly, even though Mike McCarthy tried to throw the game with poor clock management and a conservative approach, Green Bay still emerged victorious in Philly.

Entering the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, it only makes sense to have great divisional matchups. Division rivals Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh and NY Jets vs. New England square off highlighting another great weekend of NFL games (easily the two best games of the weekend). In the NFC, rematches between Seattle-Chicago and Green Bay-Atlanta are also very intriguing as well.

Riding all four road teams last week served me pretty well (and you too, if you happened to follow the Stick’s Picks). Once again, after hours of listening to podcasts, looking up team stats, and watching endless hours of ESPN, I have finalized my picks for this weekend. So with that in mind, feast your eyes on my weekly picks with Stick’s Picks: NFL Divisional Edition. Enjoy!

Divisional Round

Baltimore at Pittsburgh- What a great matchup! If Baltimore or Pittsburgh want to advance to the AFC title game, they must get past their division archrival. In case you may not know, the past four meetings between these two teams have been decided by three points each time (as ESPN has shown this stat 19382 times). In week four, Baltimore beat Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh 17-14 without Big Ben Roethlisberger. Later in week 13, Big Ben continued his dominance over the Ravens winning 13-10 (*Roethlisberger has won his last six games vs. the Ravens). So what is in store for this playoff rubber match? Let me give you a hint… probably another close game. The Ravens are 5-3 on the road this season and the Steelers are 5-3 at home this season. The Ravens three road losses were only by a combined 13 points (two of these losses came to the top-seeded Patriots and Falcons). Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has only lost to the Jets, Patriots, and the Ravens at home (all remaining playoff teams). Both of these teams are tough, physical teams whose defense at any time can singlehandedly win a game. Each team’s defensive stars (Ray Lewis and Ed Reed for Baltimore vs. James Harrison and Troy Polamalu for Pittsburgh) cancel each other out, so where does that leave us? Offense! Joe Flacco and the young Ravens offense vs. Ben Roethlisberger and the electric speed of Mike Wallace. Advantage: Pittsburgh Steelers. As close as these teams matchup on paper, I like the Black and Yellow (link) and their extra week of rest and preparation winning at the end.
Stick’s Pick: Baltimore 13, Pittsburgh 15.

Green Bay at Atlanta- Two things: 1. I’m not sold on this Atlanta Falcons team as a 13-3 team and top seed in the NFC. The Falcons are 7-1 at home with two solid running backs, one stud receiver, and a quarterback who is strictly a game manager. Remind you of anyone? How about the 2008 Carolina Panthers? Carolina (8-0 at home), also held a first round bye in 2008 behind the cast of running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, pro bowl receiver Steve Smith, and QB Jake Delhomme. The Falcons are very similar to their NFC South rival than they may think. Lets take a look at some more comparisons between the teams:
2008 Panthers                                    2010 Falcons
25.9 PPG scored                                25.9 PPG scored
20.6 PPG allowed                             18.0 PPG allowed
10th in total offense                         16th in total offense
18th in total defense                        16th in total defense

These stats doing anything for you? However, Carolina fell to the Cardinals behind the great QB play of Kurt Warner and the much improved Arizona defense (Delhomme’s six turnovers didn’t help either). Could the Falcons fall to QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers NFL’s 2nd-best defense? I’d say so. Which brings me to my second point: 2. The Green Bay Packers are the best team in the NFC. Last week I praised the Packers offense, but how about their defense? Green Bay is 2nd in the NFL allowing 15 PPG while maintaining a 5th-best total defense. ESPN declared this year to be “The Year of the Quarterback” (link), and in this case I’d take my chances with Aaron Rodgers behind center.
Stick’s Pick: Green Bay 31, Atlanta 20.

Seattle at Chicago- Upset special round 2? I don’t think so. While Pete Carroll and the Seahawks might have shocked the world last Saturday, don’t expect anything similar come Sunday afternoon. While Seattle is great up in the Northwest (5-3 at home), they are downright awful anywhere outside the state of Washington (2-6 on the road). To top it off, all six of the Seattle’s road losses have come by 15+ points each time (a combined margin of defeat of 121 points). I know, I know, but what about in week 5 when Seattle marched out of Soldier Field victorious 23-20? That was week five, this is week 19. Things change over the span of 14 weeks. For example, the Bears offense was still in rebuilding mode behind offensive guru Mike Martz and their defense may now be the best unit in the league. In week five, I’m sure the temperature high wasn’t in the low 20s like it will be this Sunday. As I mentioned Seattle’s home advantage last week, Chicago has the home field edge this time, and I look for Jay Cutler to capitalize. Fourteen weeks ago, Julius Peppers was held without a sack (my personal over/under is 2.5 sacks for Peppers this weekend). Sad to say, but I think the magical playoff run by the 8-9 Seahawks comes to a cold, snowy end in Chicago.
Stick’s Pick: Seattle 13, Chicago 27.

NY Jets at New England- Once again, the most hyped game of the weekend is the finale. Heated division rivals (Jets and Patriots) battle for the rubber match, having split games in the regular season. This matchup is getting all types of media coverage. Nearly all the Jets players (and coach Rex Ryan) are taking shots at Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. WHY??!! Why would you give one of the great coaching-quarterback duos extra motivation. When it comes to the loudmouth Jets, the great Yankees Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson put it best, “Shut up, play football!” No one is forgetting what happened to the Jets on Monday Night Football back in week 13. New England won 45-3. I could understand trash talking but losing by MORE THAN 40 points… no team can recover from that kind of humiliation. New England may have loss to the Jets in week two, but that was a Patriots team with a younger defense and the distraction of Randy Moss. I guess if you can’t beat them on the field, attack them off the field? I am not condoning the Jets sloppy arrogance. I’m sticking with soon-to-be four-time Super Bowl champion (and soon-to-be named MVP) Tom Brady. Tom Brady singlehandedly carried my fantasy football team this season and I will return the favor… riding the Brady bandwagon all the way to the Super Bowl.
Stick’s Pick: NY Jets 17, New England 38.

Feel free to comment/let me know your thoughts. Stay tuned for my conference championship picks coming next week.

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Stick’s Picks: NFL Wildcard Edition

January 8, 2011 1 Comment

A Rodgers-Vick matchup highlights this weekends playoff games

Finally, it is here. After 17 weeks of waiting, we can all rejoice this coming weekend with the start of the NFL Playoffs (just hours away). You can stop pretending to care about bowl games, and can finally watch some meaningful football. (Quick side note: this may be one of the worst bowl seasons EVER! One sign you know it might be an awful bowl season is when you realized you haven’t watched a full bowl game and have no plans to do so. Ok, I may watch the Auburn-Oregon game but I’m not going to go out of my way.)

The NFL postseason is designed better than any major sport. Win or go home! There isn’t a best of seven series to quadruple the league’s profit or a 2-month postseason, but with one bad day, you are sent packing. It is no coincidence the two most-viewed championships are the Super Bowl and March Madness. Why? One game! It’s that simple. If your team is in an elimination game, then I’m sure you’re tuning in (same goes for players taking a game off too). Maybe one day when I am commissioner of all sports, I just may reduce the postseason to something other than “The Second Season.”

This NFL season has been filled with surprise playoff teams, historic collapses, terrible injuries, off-field drama, and Brett Favre. Or in other words, this has been a typical season for the NFL. Just to name a season headlines off the top of my head: 1. Romo goes down, so do Cowboys 2. Brett Favre still plays in the NFL (at least for now) 3. Michael Vick hasn’t lost a step 4. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady 5. Peyton Manning continues to win with scrubs and finally, 6. Stick’s Picks was correct on the collapse of the Chargers and Vikings and the emergence of the Kansas City Chiefs (article). The Eagles and Cowboys both fooled me once again. Tony Romo going down all but demolished the Cowboys playoffs hopes, and had I known Vick would be starting instead of Kolb last September, maybe things would have turned out differently. As for the Bengals and 49ers, well, they just suck!

So without further adieu, here are my picks for this upcoming playoff weekend. Rather than crank out a 4000+ word article, I will be working on a weekly playoff picks article ending with the Super Bowl. I’ve done the research, analyzed matchups, calculated stats, and threw in a few gut instincts to finalize Stick’s Picks: NFL Wildcard edition. Enjoy!

Wild Card Matchups

New Orleans at Seattle- One more thing I forgot to mention: the Seahawks are a 7-9 home playoff team! I’m sure Pete Carroll is just as surprised as I am that this awful Seahawks roster is playoff-bound. But hey, that’s the NFC West. Nothing better than the statistically worst NFL playoff team of all time to match up against the defending Super Bowl Champions. With all this said, my gut is telling me this will be a closer game than anticipated. First, playing at Qwest field in Seattle is a HUGE advantage. How about this: the Seahawks were 5-3 at home this season, only losses were to the Giants, Chiefs, and Falcons (all above .500 teams). Secondly, this game is a rematch of week 11 with New Orleans winning 34-19 at the Superdome. However, this time the Saints take it on the road without their best running back (Chris Ivory) and are facing a team with nothing to lose. Did I mention that game was also Seattle QB Matt Hassellbeck’s best game of the season (notching 366 pass yards, 2 TDs with a 104.9 rating)? So who knows? Maybe, Seattle could win this game but if I had to pick, I’d stick with the reigning champions.
Stick’s Pick: Saints 27, Seahawks 21.

NY Jets at Indianapolis- Moving onto the Saturday primetime matchup. The Super Bowl runner-up (Colts) match up with the Jets (a strong preseason Super Bowl favorite and quite possibly one of the best “Hard Knocks” teams ever). Let’s looks at the 2010 Jets for a second, shall we. First thing that sticks out is how they are better on the road than at home. Why? This fits the widely known formula for road success (and playoff success): with good defense and a solid running game, you can win anywhere! The Jets still have two of the best cornerbacks in the league, a solid linebacking corps, up-and-comer Shonn Greene and a rejuvenated LT, and all coached by the evil mastermind Rex Ryan. The Jets proved last season they aren’t afraid of the bright lights of the playoffs, losing in the AFC title game to the Colts. BUT, that loss was to the 2009 Colts. Subtract Dallas Clark and Austin Collie (two of Manning’s favorite targets) and add a banged up running game, and you have the 2010 Colts. The Colts’ major weakness (stopping the run) happens to be one the Jets best strengths (running game). Its tough to pick against Manning at night, but with the lack of talent on the roster this year, I have to go with the Jets. Unlike Rex Ryan’s quote to Peyton about this game, “Its personal”, trust me Peyton, with me, it’s not personal.
Stick’s Picks: NY Jets 20, Indianapolis 17.

Baltimore at Kansas City- First things first. No surprise here that Kansas City is in the playoffs with division rival San Diego on the outside. It only makes sense that San Diego losing its best running back, receiver, and cornerback would hurt their playoff chances. As for Kansas City, this team is one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to beating sub .500 teams. Nine of their ten wins have come to teams that are either .500 or worse, with their lone win coming against San Diego in the season opener. Plus, Kansas City’s stink bomb to conclude the regular season doesn’t bode well heading into the playoffs. This Baltimore team (like the Jets) fit the mold of a successful playoff team. The Baltimore Ravens will go as far as Joe Flacco’s right arm is willing to take them. Sadly, I’m going to have to exit the Kansas City bandwagon and hop on a train to Baltimore this week.
Stick’s Pick: Baltimore 24, Kansas City 14.

Green Bay at Philadelphia- This first-round matchup is a travesty to the NFL scheduling-makers. These are the two best teams in the NFC hands down, and they happen to be playing each other the first weekend of the playoffs. I truly believe the winner of this game will be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl (you can write that down). As I said in my preseason preview (here), I love the Packers this year with their dynamic offense and a much-improved defense. Even with two concussions this season, Aaron Rodgers is still better than most QB’s in this league, and with weapons like Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones, what’s not to love about this offense? It pains me to go against Mike Vick and his remarkable comeback (article), but my gut keeps telling me that this Packers team may be for real. The Packers have lost all six of their games this season by a COMBINED 20 points (an average of 3.3). Nothing short of incredible! If you asked me about this game a couple weeks ago, I might have leaned towards Philly (given Vick’s surge), but losing to a depleted Minnesota and Dallas at home to close the season tells me that the Eagles are better off leaving home. Anyway, I will continue to ride the Packers’ bandwagon as long as I can (possibly the Super Bowl?).
Stick’s Pick: Packers 38, Eagles 24.

Ladies and Gentlemen, there you have it, my picks for this weekend’s playoff games. Yes, I have all the road teams winning. So much for home field advantage. Stay tuned next week for my picks in the divisional playoff round (after I nail all these picks first, of course).

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