Stick’s Picks: Conference Championship Edition

January 22, 2011 1 Comment

Beating the Steelers once is tough enough, let alone twice

Almost there! Just four teams remain in what has been a great NFL playoffs. Each playoff weekend, there is at least one upset, one blowout, and one comeback win. It’s a simple formula. Even last week we had two blowouts, one comeback win, and one upset. Looking back on my picks last week (link), I failed to choose an upset (unless you count the Packers at +1). It seems a weekly upset is the trend. BUT upsetting the Patriots? Fourteen wins, a remarkable Brady season, and a plethora of offensive weapons. I have to give Rex Ryan and the Jets credit, I didn’t see this coming either. Congratulations New York jets, you talked the talk and walked the walk!

Let me start out by saying last week I was 3-1 with my picks (losing the New England upset) making my overall record of 6-2 for the playoffs (Not bad!). With 8 out of 11 playoffs games in the books, we are hitting the home stretch. Heading into my weekly NFL playoff picks, here are some quick thoughts:

1. The Atlanta Falcons are who we thought they were…an overrated dome team.
2. Lest we forget, Big Ben Roethlisberger still has two rings, so no comeback is too great for the White Mamba.
3. As great as we thought the Patriots were, we were too distracted by the luxurious locks of Tom Brady to realize their glaring O-line and defensive weaknesses.
4. Chicago is a great team. They took care of business vs. a sub .500 at home, there isn’t much to look at here (at least Cutler managed to keep the ball out of the opposing team’s hands).
5. And last but not least, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are the hottest thing since sliced bread! As Stick’s Picks predicted, Green Bay stormed into Atlanta putting up 48 points in what was an absolute beat down of a 13-3 Falcons team (now Green Bay is the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl at 8 to 5).

The Year of the Quarterback continues (link). Who would have thought Manning, Brady, and Brees would be all be ‘one and done’ from the playoffs? Astonishing! That leaves sophomore sensation Mark Sanchez as he looks to take his remarkable playoff record (4-1, ALL ON ROAD) into Pittsburgh, home to playoff veteran Big Ben Roethlisberger (9-2 career playoff record). And of course, we can’t forget about two of the most legendary football franchises.. the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears.

With only two games on the schedule, there is no excuse to miss these great games. Two defensive juggernauts and two ancient rivals square off in what may be one of the best conference championship weekends in recent memory. Enjoy my newest installment of Stick’s Picks: Conference Championship Edition.

Green Bay at Chicago- Starting the weekend off right. The oldest rivalry in the NFL face off in the playoffs for the first time in 60 YEARS. Amazing, considering the past success of these historic franchises. At first glance, this matchup seems closer than some may expect. In week 3, Chicago squeaked out a three-point home win over the Packers to begin what has been a surprisingly successful season. Fourteen weeks later facing a win or go home, Green Bay took care of business at home, beating Chicago in a low-scoring 10-3 battle. So what’s in store for the week 20 rubber match? Its tough to say. In the Packers-Bears first matchup, Green Bay dominated the Bears at every aspect of the game (minus Green Bay’s 18 penalties for 158 yards!) and still came up short. In what was a defensive battle, the week 17 rematch was all about Green Bay’s defense notching a win in the season finale.

My case for Green Bay- As you may know, there is no quarterback in the league better than Aaron Rodgers. In case you live in a hole and missed A-Rod’s remarkable game last week, let me refresh your memory. Rodgers scraped along 379 total yards, 4 touchdowns, with only FIVE incompletions (31-36 passing). Not bad for a former junior college transfer. If there is anything we learned in last year’s playoffs (Manning vs. Brees), it is to ride the hot quarterback (and Rodgers has been near-perfect these playoffs). Just a few weeks ago, Green Bay still managed to win despite Aaron Rodgers poor performance. For the Packers to continue their road winning streak, they are going to need another solid game from their defense. Another great performance from A-Rod wouldn’t hurt either.

My case for Chicago- DA Bears! Despite having one of the better defenses in the league, this Chicago team has once again flown under the radar. Sound familiar? How about in 2006 when a turnover-prove Rex Grossman led the Bears to the Super Bowl? Insert a more talented Jay Cutler (also turnover-prone), and whose saying it can’t happen again? Much of the same defensively, with the addition of sack king Julius Peppers. If Chicago is to beat Green Bay, they better hope for a low scoring game. Who am I kidding? Chicago has NO CHANCE in this game.

Stick’s Pick: Green Bay 31, Chicago 10.

NY Jets at Pittsburgh- Quite the matchup! The flashy, cocky New York Jets take on the blue-collar Pittsburgh Steelers. Surprisingly, young Mark Sanchez is following in the footsteps of Ben Roethlisberger. Lets take a quick history lesson: In Big Ben’s rookie season he took Pittsburgh to the AFC title game. In Sanchez’s rookie season, he took the Jets to the AFC title game. Big Ben’s sophomore slump turned into a Super Bowl winning season. Mark Sanchez’s sophomore season…yet to be decided. Who knows? With a 4-1 playoff record, Sanchez may have more in common with Roethlisberger than we may think. Both anchor arguably the most talented defensive units in the NFL. So whose gotta give?

My case for New York- Mark, Mark, Mark! The Jets are going to have to stray away from their typical RUN, RUN, and RUN! attack. Running the ball could be quite the challenge against Pittsburgh’s front seven. Pittsburgh led the NFL in rush defense, allowing 437 FEWER rush yards than any team in the NFL. In fact, Pittsburgh allowed 137 fewer rush yards PER GAME than the Buffalo Bills. Sanchez must duplicate his performance last week to continue this Jets incredible playoff run. At only 24, Mark Sanchez is building quite the playoff resume. If he manages to keep the ball in his team’s hands, then I love a Jets upset. And I could only imagine what Rex Ryan has in store on defense.

My case for Pittsburgh- because they are the Steelers. The Steelers remind me of the San Antonio Spurs. They aren’t flashy, but they are ALWAYS contending. With a soon-to-be Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu anchoring your defense, you have to like their chances. However, if Pittsburgh is going to beat New York, it will have to come via their running game. If you were watching last week’s game vs. the Ravens, you may have noticed Pittsburgh abandoning the run. This can’t happen vs. the Jets. With the best secondary in the NFL, the key to beating the Jets is to run it down their throat. If Manning and Brady couldn’t pass on them, what makes you think Big Ben can? If Rashard Mendenhall can manage 25+ carries, then I like the Steelers to go to their eighth Super Bowl.

Stick’s Pick: NY Jets 14, Pittsburgh 13. ANYBODY CAN BE BEAT! (link) <–MUST-SEE

There you have it, Stick’s Picks for the Super Bowl. Once again, riding the road teams in two of the toughest places to play in the NFL. You can call me crazy, or you can call me a genius. I will conclude my NFL playoff picks with a Super Bowl Champion in a few weeks. Until then!

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Stick’s Picks: NFL Playoffs Round Two

January 13, 2011 6 Comments

Bill Belichick vs. Rex Ryan Round Three is a must watch

And then there were eight! After a wild NFL wildcard weekend, we are back to square one. It doesn’t matter how well you played last week, each team starts over with a clean slate (gotta love the NFL). In my article last week, you may have noticed that I went 3-1 with my picks, only losing to a Seattle upset of New Orleans.  As for last weekend, we learned a few things:

1. The Seattle Seahawks aren’t terrible, but in no means are they great either. Looking back at my article last week (link), I am still kicking myself for not picking Seattle despite all my relevant points.
2. Against a banged up Colts team, the NY Jets proved once again that a good running game and great defense can overcome subpar quarterback play (On a related note, in no way will the Jets make it past the second quarter in New England with Mark Sanchez notching a 62 QB rating).
3. If Joe Flacco and the Ravens defense play like this, then start booking a hotel in Dallas ASAP (*Baltimore did beat Kansas City, arguably the weakest of the AFC playoff teams).
4. And lastly, even though Mike McCarthy tried to throw the game with poor clock management and a conservative approach, Green Bay still emerged victorious in Philly.

Entering the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, it only makes sense to have great divisional matchups. Division rivals Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh and NY Jets vs. New England square off highlighting another great weekend of NFL games (easily the two best games of the weekend). In the NFC, rematches between Seattle-Chicago and Green Bay-Atlanta are also very intriguing as well.

Riding all four road teams last week served me pretty well (and you too, if you happened to follow the Stick’s Picks). Once again, after hours of listening to podcasts, looking up team stats, and watching endless hours of ESPN, I have finalized my picks for this weekend. So with that in mind, feast your eyes on my weekly picks with Stick’s Picks: NFL Divisional Edition. Enjoy!

Divisional Round

Baltimore at Pittsburgh- What a great matchup! If Baltimore or Pittsburgh want to advance to the AFC title game, they must get past their division archrival. In case you may not know, the past four meetings between these two teams have been decided by three points each time (as ESPN has shown this stat 19382 times). In week four, Baltimore beat Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh 17-14 without Big Ben Roethlisberger. Later in week 13, Big Ben continued his dominance over the Ravens winning 13-10 (*Roethlisberger has won his last six games vs. the Ravens). So what is in store for this playoff rubber match? Let me give you a hint… probably another close game. The Ravens are 5-3 on the road this season and the Steelers are 5-3 at home this season. The Ravens three road losses were only by a combined 13 points (two of these losses came to the top-seeded Patriots and Falcons). Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has only lost to the Jets, Patriots, and the Ravens at home (all remaining playoff teams). Both of these teams are tough, physical teams whose defense at any time can singlehandedly win a game. Each team’s defensive stars (Ray Lewis and Ed Reed for Baltimore vs. James Harrison and Troy Polamalu for Pittsburgh) cancel each other out, so where does that leave us? Offense! Joe Flacco and the young Ravens offense vs. Ben Roethlisberger and the electric speed of Mike Wallace. Advantage: Pittsburgh Steelers. As close as these teams matchup on paper, I like the Black and Yellow (link) and their extra week of rest and preparation winning at the end.
Stick’s Pick: Baltimore 13, Pittsburgh 15.

Green Bay at Atlanta- Two things: 1. I’m not sold on this Atlanta Falcons team as a 13-3 team and top seed in the NFC. The Falcons are 7-1 at home with two solid running backs, one stud receiver, and a quarterback who is strictly a game manager. Remind you of anyone? How about the 2008 Carolina Panthers? Carolina (8-0 at home), also held a first round bye in 2008 behind the cast of running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, pro bowl receiver Steve Smith, and QB Jake Delhomme. The Falcons are very similar to their NFC South rival than they may think. Lets take a look at some more comparisons between the teams:
2008 Panthers                                    2010 Falcons
25.9 PPG scored                                25.9 PPG scored
20.6 PPG allowed                             18.0 PPG allowed
10th in total offense                         16th in total offense
18th in total defense                        16th in total defense

These stats doing anything for you? However, Carolina fell to the Cardinals behind the great QB play of Kurt Warner and the much improved Arizona defense (Delhomme’s six turnovers didn’t help either). Could the Falcons fall to QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers NFL’s 2nd-best defense? I’d say so. Which brings me to my second point: 2. The Green Bay Packers are the best team in the NFC. Last week I praised the Packers offense, but how about their defense? Green Bay is 2nd in the NFL allowing 15 PPG while maintaining a 5th-best total defense. ESPN declared this year to be “The Year of the Quarterback” (link), and in this case I’d take my chances with Aaron Rodgers behind center.
Stick’s Pick: Green Bay 31, Atlanta 20.

Seattle at Chicago- Upset special round 2? I don’t think so. While Pete Carroll and the Seahawks might have shocked the world last Saturday, don’t expect anything similar come Sunday afternoon. While Seattle is great up in the Northwest (5-3 at home), they are downright awful anywhere outside the state of Washington (2-6 on the road). To top it off, all six of the Seattle’s road losses have come by 15+ points each time (a combined margin of defeat of 121 points). I know, I know, but what about in week 5 when Seattle marched out of Soldier Field victorious 23-20? That was week five, this is week 19. Things change over the span of 14 weeks. For example, the Bears offense was still in rebuilding mode behind offensive guru Mike Martz and their defense may now be the best unit in the league. In week five, I’m sure the temperature high wasn’t in the low 20s like it will be this Sunday. As I mentioned Seattle’s home advantage last week, Chicago has the home field edge this time, and I look for Jay Cutler to capitalize. Fourteen weeks ago, Julius Peppers was held without a sack (my personal over/under is 2.5 sacks for Peppers this weekend). Sad to say, but I think the magical playoff run by the 8-9 Seahawks comes to a cold, snowy end in Chicago.
Stick’s Pick: Seattle 13, Chicago 27.

NY Jets at New England- Once again, the most hyped game of the weekend is the finale. Heated division rivals (Jets and Patriots) battle for the rubber match, having split games in the regular season. This matchup is getting all types of media coverage. Nearly all the Jets players (and coach Rex Ryan) are taking shots at Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. WHY??!! Why would you give one of the great coaching-quarterback duos extra motivation. When it comes to the loudmouth Jets, the great Yankees Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson put it best, “Shut up, play football!” No one is forgetting what happened to the Jets on Monday Night Football back in week 13. New England won 45-3. I could understand trash talking but losing by MORE THAN 40 points… no team can recover from that kind of humiliation. New England may have loss to the Jets in week two, but that was a Patriots team with a younger defense and the distraction of Randy Moss. I guess if you can’t beat them on the field, attack them off the field? I am not condoning the Jets sloppy arrogance. I’m sticking with soon-to-be four-time Super Bowl champion (and soon-to-be named MVP) Tom Brady. Tom Brady singlehandedly carried my fantasy football team this season and I will return the favor… riding the Brady bandwagon all the way to the Super Bowl.
Stick’s Pick: NY Jets 17, New England 38.

Feel free to comment/let me know your thoughts. Stay tuned for my conference championship picks coming next week.

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Stick’s Picks: NFL Wildcard Edition

January 8, 2011 1 Comment

A Rodgers-Vick matchup highlights this weekends playoff games

Finally, it is here. After 17 weeks of waiting, we can all rejoice this coming weekend with the start of the NFL Playoffs (just hours away). You can stop pretending to care about bowl games, and can finally watch some meaningful football. (Quick side note: this may be one of the worst bowl seasons EVER! One sign you know it might be an awful bowl season is when you realized you haven’t watched a full bowl game and have no plans to do so. Ok, I may watch the Auburn-Oregon game but I’m not going to go out of my way.)

The NFL postseason is designed better than any major sport. Win or go home! There isn’t a best of seven series to quadruple the league’s profit or a 2-month postseason, but with one bad day, you are sent packing. It is no coincidence the two most-viewed championships are the Super Bowl and March Madness. Why? One game! It’s that simple. If your team is in an elimination game, then I’m sure you’re tuning in (same goes for players taking a game off too). Maybe one day when I am commissioner of all sports, I just may reduce the postseason to something other than “The Second Season.”

This NFL season has been filled with surprise playoff teams, historic collapses, terrible injuries, off-field drama, and Brett Favre. Or in other words, this has been a typical season for the NFL. Just to name a season headlines off the top of my head: 1. Romo goes down, so do Cowboys 2. Brett Favre still plays in the NFL (at least for now) 3. Michael Vick hasn’t lost a step 4. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady 5. Peyton Manning continues to win with scrubs and finally, 6. Stick’s Picks was correct on the collapse of the Chargers and Vikings and the emergence of the Kansas City Chiefs (article). The Eagles and Cowboys both fooled me once again. Tony Romo going down all but demolished the Cowboys playoffs hopes, and had I known Vick would be starting instead of Kolb last September, maybe things would have turned out differently. As for the Bengals and 49ers, well, they just suck!

So without further adieu, here are my picks for this upcoming playoff weekend. Rather than crank out a 4000+ word article, I will be working on a weekly playoff picks article ending with the Super Bowl. I’ve done the research, analyzed matchups, calculated stats, and threw in a few gut instincts to finalize Stick’s Picks: NFL Wildcard edition. Enjoy!

Wild Card Matchups

New Orleans at Seattle- One more thing I forgot to mention: the Seahawks are a 7-9 home playoff team! I’m sure Pete Carroll is just as surprised as I am that this awful Seahawks roster is playoff-bound. But hey, that’s the NFC West. Nothing better than the statistically worst NFL playoff team of all time to match up against the defending Super Bowl Champions. With all this said, my gut is telling me this will be a closer game than anticipated. First, playing at Qwest field in Seattle is a HUGE advantage. How about this: the Seahawks were 5-3 at home this season, only losses were to the Giants, Chiefs, and Falcons (all above .500 teams). Secondly, this game is a rematch of week 11 with New Orleans winning 34-19 at the Superdome. However, this time the Saints take it on the road without their best running back (Chris Ivory) and are facing a team with nothing to lose. Did I mention that game was also Seattle QB Matt Hassellbeck’s best game of the season (notching 366 pass yards, 2 TDs with a 104.9 rating)? So who knows? Maybe, Seattle could win this game but if I had to pick, I’d stick with the reigning champions.
Stick’s Pick: Saints 27, Seahawks 21.

NY Jets at Indianapolis- Moving onto the Saturday primetime matchup. The Super Bowl runner-up (Colts) match up with the Jets (a strong preseason Super Bowl favorite and quite possibly one of the best “Hard Knocks” teams ever). Let’s looks at the 2010 Jets for a second, shall we. First thing that sticks out is how they are better on the road than at home. Why? This fits the widely known formula for road success (and playoff success): with good defense and a solid running game, you can win anywhere! The Jets still have two of the best cornerbacks in the league, a solid linebacking corps, up-and-comer Shonn Greene and a rejuvenated LT, and all coached by the evil mastermind Rex Ryan. The Jets proved last season they aren’t afraid of the bright lights of the playoffs, losing in the AFC title game to the Colts. BUT, that loss was to the 2009 Colts. Subtract Dallas Clark and Austin Collie (two of Manning’s favorite targets) and add a banged up running game, and you have the 2010 Colts. The Colts’ major weakness (stopping the run) happens to be one the Jets best strengths (running game). Its tough to pick against Manning at night, but with the lack of talent on the roster this year, I have to go with the Jets. Unlike Rex Ryan’s quote to Peyton about this game, “Its personal”, trust me Peyton, with me, it’s not personal.
Stick’s Picks: NY Jets 20, Indianapolis 17.

Baltimore at Kansas City- First things first. No surprise here that Kansas City is in the playoffs with division rival San Diego on the outside. It only makes sense that San Diego losing its best running back, receiver, and cornerback would hurt their playoff chances. As for Kansas City, this team is one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to beating sub .500 teams. Nine of their ten wins have come to teams that are either .500 or worse, with their lone win coming against San Diego in the season opener. Plus, Kansas City’s stink bomb to conclude the regular season doesn’t bode well heading into the playoffs. This Baltimore team (like the Jets) fit the mold of a successful playoff team. The Baltimore Ravens will go as far as Joe Flacco’s right arm is willing to take them. Sadly, I’m going to have to exit the Kansas City bandwagon and hop on a train to Baltimore this week.
Stick’s Pick: Baltimore 24, Kansas City 14.

Green Bay at Philadelphia- This first-round matchup is a travesty to the NFL scheduling-makers. These are the two best teams in the NFC hands down, and they happen to be playing each other the first weekend of the playoffs. I truly believe the winner of this game will be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl (you can write that down). As I said in my preseason preview (here), I love the Packers this year with their dynamic offense and a much-improved defense. Even with two concussions this season, Aaron Rodgers is still better than most QB’s in this league, and with weapons like Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones, what’s not to love about this offense? It pains me to go against Mike Vick and his remarkable comeback (article), but my gut keeps telling me that this Packers team may be for real. The Packers have lost all six of their games this season by a COMBINED 20 points (an average of 3.3). Nothing short of incredible! If you asked me about this game a couple weeks ago, I might have leaned towards Philly (given Vick’s surge), but losing to a depleted Minnesota and Dallas at home to close the season tells me that the Eagles are better off leaving home. Anyway, I will continue to ride the Packers’ bandwagon as long as I can (possibly the Super Bowl?).
Stick’s Pick: Packers 38, Eagles 24.

Ladies and Gentlemen, there you have it, my picks for this weekend’s playoff games. Yes, I have all the road teams winning. So much for home field advantage. Stay tuned next week for my picks in the divisional playoff round (after I nail all these picks first, of course).

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