A Texas-sized Super Bowl

February 6, 2011 3 Comments

No team has ever won seven Super Bowls! No team has ever won the Super Bowl as a six seed! Never has a Super Bowl been played in Dallas, Texas! You see what I’m getting at here?

It’s a Super Bowl of firsts. Welcome to the first annual Stick’s Pick Super Bowl Preview. First of all, I’d like to note that I am 7-3 on picks heading into Super Bowl 45 (soon-to-be 8-3). If you have been following my picks throughout the playoffs, this should come as no surprise to you. As predicted from the start (link), the Green Bay Packers are back in the Super Bowl taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers who are going for their record seventh Super Bowl title.

Take all the major sporting events and combine those into one three-hour game. What do you have? The Super Bowl! No other game draws half the hype or intrigue as the Super Bowl. Consistently drawing 100+ million viewers a year, there is no bigger stage. Just ask the folks on Madison Avenue (side note: this is one of the few times a year I actually take the time to watch all the commercials. Praise DVR!)

First things first, why does the NFL keep saying the Super Bowl is being held in North Texas. Is the city of Dallas trademarked? Or did Jerry Jones specifically say not to mention Dallas to remind the public of the Cowboys woes this season? And the SNOW? Having attended the NBA All Star game last February in Dallas, I can say that somehow the sports and weather Gods have topped themselves once again. NEVER, and I mean NEVER have I witnessed this much snow in the great state of Texas (This isn’t the usual black ice snow either, I’m talking the powder!)

As I was saying, the Super Bowl is MUCH more than the game itself. It might be the extra week of hype that propels it to immortal levels but this game keeps getting bigger and bigger. (On another side note: There is absolutely NO WAY the NFL has a lockout come next season. Football is the biggest it’s been during my lifetime, and you don’t have to be a mathematician to realize they could be leaving BILLIONS of dollars on the table.)

The Matchup
Arguably the three most storied NFL franchises are involved in this year’s Super Bowl: The Green Bay Packers (a team whose stadium holds more seats than the city’s population) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers (Six-time Super Bowl Champion and a national symbol of the American working class). What an excellent matchup! Did I mention it is being held in the largest, most ridiculously grandiose stadium in the country? Jerry World (home to America’s team Dallas Cowboys) is also on display in what it is prime to be an epic weekend.

I’m not going to sit here and analyze statistics, because let’s face it. When it comes to the Super Bowl, all bets are out the window (literally). Desperately seeking a pattern in past Super Bowl champions, I’ve concluded that numbers can’t predict the Super Bowl. As the NFL’s two best sack and scoring defenses go head to head, we are in store for another classic.

Why Pittsburgh will win: Lets see, the Steelers will win their 7th Super Bowl title by simply playing Steelers football. If you happened to catch any Pittsburgh’s games during the playoffs, you may have noticed their physical mentality. Run the ball, Play defense, and don’t turn the ball over… simple formula.

The Steelers’ current offensive line woes have been hyped more than the game itself. Let me put this in perspective: Pittsburgh has so many injured lineman that in some spots, they are on their third or fourth-string starter. To make matters worse, their rookie Pro Bowl center (Maurkice Pouncey) is unavailable for this game. However, something tells me Pittsburgh may manage to avoid this glaring weakness and scrap together a patchwork offensive line. It’s going to be a challenge as they go up against a defense that has racked up 47 sacks (2nd in the NFL- trailing only behind Pittsburgh’s 48 sacks).

I’ll say this for certain, if Pittsburgh becomes a one-dimensional offense (passing offense most likely), then they have NO chance in this game. This isn’t your typical NFL defense. In fact, both Pittsburgh and Green Bay rank one and two in the NFL in defensive points allowed. If you take this game strictly by the books, then neither of these teams SHOULD score more than 20 points. If Pittsburgh is going to win, they need to hope for a low scoring defensive battle (Because if the Packers manage more than 20+ points, mark my words Green Bay will win.) Which brings me to:

Why Green Bay will win: I’ll be honest, ever since the Cowboys choked away another season, Green Bay has been my dark horse to make it to the Super Bowl. If you’ve read my previous playoff articles then you know I’ve been on the Packers bandwagon. ALL ABOARD!

As mentioned, the more points scored in this game, the better the Packer’s chances. Much has been made about the Packers six-seed, and their ability to win all their playoff games on the road. But let’s be honest, if it weren’t for the array of Green Bay injuries, this team had the talent to rack up 13 or 14 wins. Star running back out for the season (Ryan Grant), star tight end out for the season (Jamichael Finley), and Aaron Rodgers multiple concussions just to name a few.

Green Bay will win the Super Bowl if Aaron Rodgers and their offense play well. It’s that simple. You put up points against the “Steel Curtain”, and then you may have a chance. And don’t get me started on the Packers offense indoors. In three games this season, Rodgers best-overall games have come indoors (notching a 115 QB rating, 650 pass yards, 5 TDs with just one interception). Did you happen to watch the Falcons-Packers game at the Georgia Dome a few weeks back? 48 points later… the Packers strike again. Once again, if it comes down to each team’s offense, its going to be tough to match up with the green and yellow.

Stick’s Pick: After hitting 70% of my picks thus far, it all comes down to this. It truly doesn’t matter if you don’t pick the correct Super Bowl winner. With all this in mind, my gut feeling tells me this will be a shootout. Throw out the numbers, it is almost a proven fact that when the two best defenses square off, points are scored. So without further adeiu, I’m riding the Packers bandwagon one more week:
Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 27.

Aaron Rodgers finally gets a real Championship belt

This is the first Super Bowl since 2000 to have a spread of three points or less. So get ready for Super Bowl 45… it’s going to be one for the ages. What do you think? Give me your comments and let me hear from you.

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Stick’s Picks: Conference Championship Edition

January 22, 2011 1 Comment

Beating the Steelers once is tough enough, let alone twice

Almost there! Just four teams remain in what has been a great NFL playoffs. Each playoff weekend, there is at least one upset, one blowout, and one comeback win. It’s a simple formula. Even last week we had two blowouts, one comeback win, and one upset. Looking back on my picks last week (link), I failed to choose an upset (unless you count the Packers at +1). It seems a weekly upset is the trend. BUT upsetting the Patriots? Fourteen wins, a remarkable Brady season, and a plethora of offensive weapons. I have to give Rex Ryan and the Jets credit, I didn’t see this coming either. Congratulations New York jets, you talked the talk and walked the walk!

Let me start out by saying last week I was 3-1 with my picks (losing the New England upset) making my overall record of 6-2 for the playoffs (Not bad!). With 8 out of 11 playoffs games in the books, we are hitting the home stretch. Heading into my weekly NFL playoff picks, here are some quick thoughts:

1. The Atlanta Falcons are who we thought they were…an overrated dome team.
2. Lest we forget, Big Ben Roethlisberger still has two rings, so no comeback is too great for the White Mamba.
3. As great as we thought the Patriots were, we were too distracted by the luxurious locks of Tom Brady to realize their glaring O-line and defensive weaknesses.
4. Chicago is a great team. They took care of business vs. a sub .500 at home, there isn’t much to look at here (at least Cutler managed to keep the ball out of the opposing team’s hands).
5. And last but not least, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are the hottest thing since sliced bread! As Stick’s Picks predicted, Green Bay stormed into Atlanta putting up 48 points in what was an absolute beat down of a 13-3 Falcons team (now Green Bay is the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl at 8 to 5).

The Year of the Quarterback continues (link). Who would have thought Manning, Brady, and Brees would be all be ‘one and done’ from the playoffs? Astonishing! That leaves sophomore sensation Mark Sanchez as he looks to take his remarkable playoff record (4-1, ALL ON ROAD) into Pittsburgh, home to playoff veteran Big Ben Roethlisberger (9-2 career playoff record). And of course, we can’t forget about two of the most legendary football franchises.. the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears.

With only two games on the schedule, there is no excuse to miss these great games. Two defensive juggernauts and two ancient rivals square off in what may be one of the best conference championship weekends in recent memory. Enjoy my newest installment of Stick’s Picks: Conference Championship Edition.

Green Bay at Chicago- Starting the weekend off right. The oldest rivalry in the NFL face off in the playoffs for the first time in 60 YEARS. Amazing, considering the past success of these historic franchises. At first glance, this matchup seems closer than some may expect. In week 3, Chicago squeaked out a three-point home win over the Packers to begin what has been a surprisingly successful season. Fourteen weeks later facing a win or go home, Green Bay took care of business at home, beating Chicago in a low-scoring 10-3 battle. So what’s in store for the week 20 rubber match? Its tough to say. In the Packers-Bears first matchup, Green Bay dominated the Bears at every aspect of the game (minus Green Bay’s 18 penalties for 158 yards!) and still came up short. In what was a defensive battle, the week 17 rematch was all about Green Bay’s defense notching a win in the season finale.

My case for Green Bay- As you may know, there is no quarterback in the league better than Aaron Rodgers. In case you live in a hole and missed A-Rod’s remarkable game last week, let me refresh your memory. Rodgers scraped along 379 total yards, 4 touchdowns, with only FIVE incompletions (31-36 passing). Not bad for a former junior college transfer. If there is anything we learned in last year’s playoffs (Manning vs. Brees), it is to ride the hot quarterback (and Rodgers has been near-perfect these playoffs). Just a few weeks ago, Green Bay still managed to win despite Aaron Rodgers poor performance. For the Packers to continue their road winning streak, they are going to need another solid game from their defense. Another great performance from A-Rod wouldn’t hurt either.

My case for Chicago- DA Bears! Despite having one of the better defenses in the league, this Chicago team has once again flown under the radar. Sound familiar? How about in 2006 when a turnover-prove Rex Grossman led the Bears to the Super Bowl? Insert a more talented Jay Cutler (also turnover-prone), and whose saying it can’t happen again? Much of the same defensively, with the addition of sack king Julius Peppers. If Chicago is to beat Green Bay, they better hope for a low scoring game. Who am I kidding? Chicago has NO CHANCE in this game.

Stick’s Pick: Green Bay 31, Chicago 10.

NY Jets at Pittsburgh- Quite the matchup! The flashy, cocky New York Jets take on the blue-collar Pittsburgh Steelers. Surprisingly, young Mark Sanchez is following in the footsteps of Ben Roethlisberger. Lets take a quick history lesson: In Big Ben’s rookie season he took Pittsburgh to the AFC title game. In Sanchez’s rookie season, he took the Jets to the AFC title game. Big Ben’s sophomore slump turned into a Super Bowl winning season. Mark Sanchez’s sophomore season…yet to be decided. Who knows? With a 4-1 playoff record, Sanchez may have more in common with Roethlisberger than we may think. Both anchor arguably the most talented defensive units in the NFL. So whose gotta give?

My case for New York- Mark, Mark, Mark! The Jets are going to have to stray away from their typical RUN, RUN, and RUN! attack. Running the ball could be quite the challenge against Pittsburgh’s front seven. Pittsburgh led the NFL in rush defense, allowing 437 FEWER rush yards than any team in the NFL. In fact, Pittsburgh allowed 137 fewer rush yards PER GAME than the Buffalo Bills. Sanchez must duplicate his performance last week to continue this Jets incredible playoff run. At only 24, Mark Sanchez is building quite the playoff resume. If he manages to keep the ball in his team’s hands, then I love a Jets upset. And I could only imagine what Rex Ryan has in store on defense.

My case for Pittsburgh- because they are the Steelers. The Steelers remind me of the San Antonio Spurs. They aren’t flashy, but they are ALWAYS contending. With a soon-to-be Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu anchoring your defense, you have to like their chances. However, if Pittsburgh is going to beat New York, it will have to come via their running game. If you were watching last week’s game vs. the Ravens, you may have noticed Pittsburgh abandoning the run. This can’t happen vs. the Jets. With the best secondary in the NFL, the key to beating the Jets is to run it down their throat. If Manning and Brady couldn’t pass on them, what makes you think Big Ben can? If Rashard Mendenhall can manage 25+ carries, then I like the Steelers to go to their eighth Super Bowl.

Stick’s Pick: NY Jets 14, Pittsburgh 13. ANYBODY CAN BE BEAT! (link) <–MUST-SEE

There you have it, Stick’s Picks for the Super Bowl. Once again, riding the road teams in two of the toughest places to play in the NFL. You can call me crazy, or you can call me a genius. I will conclude my NFL playoff picks with a Super Bowl Champion in a few weeks. Until then!

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Stick’s Picks: NFL Playoffs Round Two

January 13, 2011 6 Comments

Bill Belichick vs. Rex Ryan Round Three is a must watch

And then there were eight! After a wild NFL wildcard weekend, we are back to square one. It doesn’t matter how well you played last week, each team starts over with a clean slate (gotta love the NFL). In my article last week, you may have noticed that I went 3-1 with my picks, only losing to a Seattle upset of New Orleans.  As for last weekend, we learned a few things:

1. The Seattle Seahawks aren’t terrible, but in no means are they great either. Looking back at my article last week (link), I am still kicking myself for not picking Seattle despite all my relevant points.
2. Against a banged up Colts team, the NY Jets proved once again that a good running game and great defense can overcome subpar quarterback play (On a related note, in no way will the Jets make it past the second quarter in New England with Mark Sanchez notching a 62 QB rating).
3. If Joe Flacco and the Ravens defense play like this, then start booking a hotel in Dallas ASAP (*Baltimore did beat Kansas City, arguably the weakest of the AFC playoff teams).
4. And lastly, even though Mike McCarthy tried to throw the game with poor clock management and a conservative approach, Green Bay still emerged victorious in Philly.

Entering the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, it only makes sense to have great divisional matchups. Division rivals Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh and NY Jets vs. New England square off highlighting another great weekend of NFL games (easily the two best games of the weekend). In the NFC, rematches between Seattle-Chicago and Green Bay-Atlanta are also very intriguing as well.

Riding all four road teams last week served me pretty well (and you too, if you happened to follow the Stick’s Picks). Once again, after hours of listening to podcasts, looking up team stats, and watching endless hours of ESPN, I have finalized my picks for this weekend. So with that in mind, feast your eyes on my weekly picks with Stick’s Picks: NFL Divisional Edition. Enjoy!

Divisional Round

Baltimore at Pittsburgh- What a great matchup! If Baltimore or Pittsburgh want to advance to the AFC title game, they must get past their division archrival. In case you may not know, the past four meetings between these two teams have been decided by three points each time (as ESPN has shown this stat 19382 times). In week four, Baltimore beat Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh 17-14 without Big Ben Roethlisberger. Later in week 13, Big Ben continued his dominance over the Ravens winning 13-10 (*Roethlisberger has won his last six games vs. the Ravens). So what is in store for this playoff rubber match? Let me give you a hint… probably another close game. The Ravens are 5-3 on the road this season and the Steelers are 5-3 at home this season. The Ravens three road losses were only by a combined 13 points (two of these losses came to the top-seeded Patriots and Falcons). Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has only lost to the Jets, Patriots, and the Ravens at home (all remaining playoff teams). Both of these teams are tough, physical teams whose defense at any time can singlehandedly win a game. Each team’s defensive stars (Ray Lewis and Ed Reed for Baltimore vs. James Harrison and Troy Polamalu for Pittsburgh) cancel each other out, so where does that leave us? Offense! Joe Flacco and the young Ravens offense vs. Ben Roethlisberger and the electric speed of Mike Wallace. Advantage: Pittsburgh Steelers. As close as these teams matchup on paper, I like the Black and Yellow (link) and their extra week of rest and preparation winning at the end.
Stick’s Pick: Baltimore 13, Pittsburgh 15.

Green Bay at Atlanta- Two things: 1. I’m not sold on this Atlanta Falcons team as a 13-3 team and top seed in the NFC. The Falcons are 7-1 at home with two solid running backs, one stud receiver, and a quarterback who is strictly a game manager. Remind you of anyone? How about the 2008 Carolina Panthers? Carolina (8-0 at home), also held a first round bye in 2008 behind the cast of running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, pro bowl receiver Steve Smith, and QB Jake Delhomme. The Falcons are very similar to their NFC South rival than they may think. Lets take a look at some more comparisons between the teams:
2008 Panthers                                    2010 Falcons
25.9 PPG scored                                25.9 PPG scored
20.6 PPG allowed                             18.0 PPG allowed
10th in total offense                         16th in total offense
18th in total defense                        16th in total defense

These stats doing anything for you? However, Carolina fell to the Cardinals behind the great QB play of Kurt Warner and the much improved Arizona defense (Delhomme’s six turnovers didn’t help either). Could the Falcons fall to QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers NFL’s 2nd-best defense? I’d say so. Which brings me to my second point: 2. The Green Bay Packers are the best team in the NFC. Last week I praised the Packers offense, but how about their defense? Green Bay is 2nd in the NFL allowing 15 PPG while maintaining a 5th-best total defense. ESPN declared this year to be “The Year of the Quarterback” (link), and in this case I’d take my chances with Aaron Rodgers behind center.
Stick’s Pick: Green Bay 31, Atlanta 20.

Seattle at Chicago- Upset special round 2? I don’t think so. While Pete Carroll and the Seahawks might have shocked the world last Saturday, don’t expect anything similar come Sunday afternoon. While Seattle is great up in the Northwest (5-3 at home), they are downright awful anywhere outside the state of Washington (2-6 on the road). To top it off, all six of the Seattle’s road losses have come by 15+ points each time (a combined margin of defeat of 121 points). I know, I know, but what about in week 5 when Seattle marched out of Soldier Field victorious 23-20? That was week five, this is week 19. Things change over the span of 14 weeks. For example, the Bears offense was still in rebuilding mode behind offensive guru Mike Martz and their defense may now be the best unit in the league. In week five, I’m sure the temperature high wasn’t in the low 20s like it will be this Sunday. As I mentioned Seattle’s home advantage last week, Chicago has the home field edge this time, and I look for Jay Cutler to capitalize. Fourteen weeks ago, Julius Peppers was held without a sack (my personal over/under is 2.5 sacks for Peppers this weekend). Sad to say, but I think the magical playoff run by the 8-9 Seahawks comes to a cold, snowy end in Chicago.
Stick’s Pick: Seattle 13, Chicago 27.

NY Jets at New England- Once again, the most hyped game of the weekend is the finale. Heated division rivals (Jets and Patriots) battle for the rubber match, having split games in the regular season. This matchup is getting all types of media coverage. Nearly all the Jets players (and coach Rex Ryan) are taking shots at Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. WHY??!! Why would you give one of the great coaching-quarterback duos extra motivation. When it comes to the loudmouth Jets, the great Yankees Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson put it best, “Shut up, play football!” No one is forgetting what happened to the Jets on Monday Night Football back in week 13. New England won 45-3. I could understand trash talking but losing by MORE THAN 40 points… no team can recover from that kind of humiliation. New England may have loss to the Jets in week two, but that was a Patriots team with a younger defense and the distraction of Randy Moss. I guess if you can’t beat them on the field, attack them off the field? I am not condoning the Jets sloppy arrogance. I’m sticking with soon-to-be four-time Super Bowl champion (and soon-to-be named MVP) Tom Brady. Tom Brady singlehandedly carried my fantasy football team this season and I will return the favor… riding the Brady bandwagon all the way to the Super Bowl.
Stick’s Pick: NY Jets 17, New England 38.

Feel free to comment/let me know your thoughts. Stay tuned for my conference championship picks coming next week.

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Stick’s Picks: NFL Wildcard Edition

January 8, 2011 1 Comment

A Rodgers-Vick matchup highlights this weekends playoff games

Finally, it is here. After 17 weeks of waiting, we can all rejoice this coming weekend with the start of the NFL Playoffs (just hours away). You can stop pretending to care about bowl games, and can finally watch some meaningful football. (Quick side note: this may be one of the worst bowl seasons EVER! One sign you know it might be an awful bowl season is when you realized you haven’t watched a full bowl game and have no plans to do so. Ok, I may watch the Auburn-Oregon game but I’m not going to go out of my way.)

The NFL postseason is designed better than any major sport. Win or go home! There isn’t a best of seven series to quadruple the league’s profit or a 2-month postseason, but with one bad day, you are sent packing. It is no coincidence the two most-viewed championships are the Super Bowl and March Madness. Why? One game! It’s that simple. If your team is in an elimination game, then I’m sure you’re tuning in (same goes for players taking a game off too). Maybe one day when I am commissioner of all sports, I just may reduce the postseason to something other than “The Second Season.”

This NFL season has been filled with surprise playoff teams, historic collapses, terrible injuries, off-field drama, and Brett Favre. Or in other words, this has been a typical season for the NFL. Just to name a season headlines off the top of my head: 1. Romo goes down, so do Cowboys 2. Brett Favre still plays in the NFL (at least for now) 3. Michael Vick hasn’t lost a step 4. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady 5. Peyton Manning continues to win with scrubs and finally, 6. Stick’s Picks was correct on the collapse of the Chargers and Vikings and the emergence of the Kansas City Chiefs (article). The Eagles and Cowboys both fooled me once again. Tony Romo going down all but demolished the Cowboys playoffs hopes, and had I known Vick would be starting instead of Kolb last September, maybe things would have turned out differently. As for the Bengals and 49ers, well, they just suck!

So without further adieu, here are my picks for this upcoming playoff weekend. Rather than crank out a 4000+ word article, I will be working on a weekly playoff picks article ending with the Super Bowl. I’ve done the research, analyzed matchups, calculated stats, and threw in a few gut instincts to finalize Stick’s Picks: NFL Wildcard edition. Enjoy!

Wild Card Matchups

New Orleans at Seattle- One more thing I forgot to mention: the Seahawks are a 7-9 home playoff team! I’m sure Pete Carroll is just as surprised as I am that this awful Seahawks roster is playoff-bound. But hey, that’s the NFC West. Nothing better than the statistically worst NFL playoff team of all time to match up against the defending Super Bowl Champions. With all this said, my gut is telling me this will be a closer game than anticipated. First, playing at Qwest field in Seattle is a HUGE advantage. How about this: the Seahawks were 5-3 at home this season, only losses were to the Giants, Chiefs, and Falcons (all above .500 teams). Secondly, this game is a rematch of week 11 with New Orleans winning 34-19 at the Superdome. However, this time the Saints take it on the road without their best running back (Chris Ivory) and are facing a team with nothing to lose. Did I mention that game was also Seattle QB Matt Hassellbeck’s best game of the season (notching 366 pass yards, 2 TDs with a 104.9 rating)? So who knows? Maybe, Seattle could win this game but if I had to pick, I’d stick with the reigning champions.
Stick’s Pick: Saints 27, Seahawks 21.

NY Jets at Indianapolis- Moving onto the Saturday primetime matchup. The Super Bowl runner-up (Colts) match up with the Jets (a strong preseason Super Bowl favorite and quite possibly one of the best “Hard Knocks” teams ever). Let’s looks at the 2010 Jets for a second, shall we. First thing that sticks out is how they are better on the road than at home. Why? This fits the widely known formula for road success (and playoff success): with good defense and a solid running game, you can win anywhere! The Jets still have two of the best cornerbacks in the league, a solid linebacking corps, up-and-comer Shonn Greene and a rejuvenated LT, and all coached by the evil mastermind Rex Ryan. The Jets proved last season they aren’t afraid of the bright lights of the playoffs, losing in the AFC title game to the Colts. BUT, that loss was to the 2009 Colts. Subtract Dallas Clark and Austin Collie (two of Manning’s favorite targets) and add a banged up running game, and you have the 2010 Colts. The Colts’ major weakness (stopping the run) happens to be one the Jets best strengths (running game). Its tough to pick against Manning at night, but with the lack of talent on the roster this year, I have to go with the Jets. Unlike Rex Ryan’s quote to Peyton about this game, “Its personal”, trust me Peyton, with me, it’s not personal.
Stick’s Picks: NY Jets 20, Indianapolis 17.

Baltimore at Kansas City- First things first. No surprise here that Kansas City is in the playoffs with division rival San Diego on the outside. It only makes sense that San Diego losing its best running back, receiver, and cornerback would hurt their playoff chances. As for Kansas City, this team is one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to beating sub .500 teams. Nine of their ten wins have come to teams that are either .500 or worse, with their lone win coming against San Diego in the season opener. Plus, Kansas City’s stink bomb to conclude the regular season doesn’t bode well heading into the playoffs. This Baltimore team (like the Jets) fit the mold of a successful playoff team. The Baltimore Ravens will go as far as Joe Flacco’s right arm is willing to take them. Sadly, I’m going to have to exit the Kansas City bandwagon and hop on a train to Baltimore this week.
Stick’s Pick: Baltimore 24, Kansas City 14.

Green Bay at Philadelphia- This first-round matchup is a travesty to the NFL scheduling-makers. These are the two best teams in the NFC hands down, and they happen to be playing each other the first weekend of the playoffs. I truly believe the winner of this game will be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl (you can write that down). As I said in my preseason preview (here), I love the Packers this year with their dynamic offense and a much-improved defense. Even with two concussions this season, Aaron Rodgers is still better than most QB’s in this league, and with weapons like Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones, what’s not to love about this offense? It pains me to go against Mike Vick and his remarkable comeback (article), but my gut keeps telling me that this Packers team may be for real. The Packers have lost all six of their games this season by a COMBINED 20 points (an average of 3.3). Nothing short of incredible! If you asked me about this game a couple weeks ago, I might have leaned towards Philly (given Vick’s surge), but losing to a depleted Minnesota and Dallas at home to close the season tells me that the Eagles are better off leaving home. Anyway, I will continue to ride the Packers’ bandwagon as long as I can (possibly the Super Bowl?).
Stick’s Pick: Packers 38, Eagles 24.

Ladies and Gentlemen, there you have it, my picks for this weekend’s playoff games. Yes, I have all the road teams winning. So much for home field advantage. Stay tuned next week for my picks in the divisional playoff round (after I nail all these picks first, of course).

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Second Time’s a Charm

November 23, 2010 Leave a comment

Everybody deserves a second chance. Life may not offer many second chances, but when you get them, carpe diem!

Sports may be the best avenue to re-prove yourself to your team, your fans, and yourself. It seems like everyday there is a new athlete involved in a scandal. This has become so out of control when I turn on SportsCenter, I feel like I’m watching an episode of TMZ. No, I don’t care what Brett Favre had for breakfast Wednesday morning, nor do I care who divorced whom and married whom. That isn’t why I watch sports. I’m not one to judge an athlete based on his off-field activity, but rather on his on-the-field performance. But sadly, I think I am the minority.

Nowadays, some fans are forming their opinions of athletes based on what they do in their off time. I have no problem with this, but these fans are the ones that rarely even watch sports. This is a problem. Living in the great country of America, a second chance is practically written in the constitution. “Fool me once, shame on you! Fool me twice, shame on me!” After all, the American public are very forgiving. In this “What-have-you-done-for-me-lately” society, sports fan are always looking for a reason to forgive. If you win, people forget. It’s that simple. Look at Kobe, look at Jordan, heck even A-Rod! But if you fail to win, LOOK OUT! (See Wade Phillips, Brad Childress, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, or Brett Favre).

Take Michael Vick for example. Yes, he may have done some terrible things, but he served his time and is back and better than ever. Let me be the first to tell you, I have always been a fan of Mike Vick; the guy’s talents are simply amazing. Ever since his breakout season in 2003, Michael Vick has always been one of the most electrifying players in the National Football League. Vick’s talents were still raw in Atlanta, and he was never mature enough to understand all the intangibles that are needed to play quarterback in the NFL. Sure, there are many athletes out there with Vick’s arm or Vick’s speed, but through experience and maturity, Vick is finally able to harness his power. This is pretty scary considering a raw Michael Vick took a weak Falcons team to the 2003 NFC Championship game. Vick’s uncanny ability to scramble better than any quarterback EVER, is a huge disadvantage for the opposing defense. Instead of accounting for all 11 players on offense, they must account for 12 (Vick’s speed). It’s not everyday you see two defensive players strictly guarding the quarterback. With the endless talents of Michael Vick, he is primed to be something special. After a brief quarterback conflict at the beginning of the season, Michael Vick is in the driver’s seat for NFL MVP and may have Philadelphia in a collision course to the Super Bowl. And credit the Eagles for giving Michael Vick his second chance… not many teams were willing to do the same.

Speaking of second chance MVPs, Josh Hamilton was awarded the AL MVP for the first time this afternoon. For those who aren’t aware of Hamilton’s comeback story, let me give you a brief refresher course. Touted as the most talented high school baseball player in recent memory, Hamilton was selected first overall in 1999 by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. A few years later, Hamilton was involved in a car accident, which inevitably sent him into drug rehab. After more and more failed drug tests, Hamilton embarked on a three-year hiatus from baseball (2003-2006) to get his life together. Four years later, he becomes the American League MVP. And the rest is history.

A quick tangent on Josh Hamilton’s historic season. As you may have already known, I am a Texas Rangers fan and this news brought joy to me as much as anybody else. Not since the days of Pudge Rodriguez and Juan Gonzalez had the Rangers had a power hitter of Hamilton’s caliber. In fact, Josh Hamilton may be the best Rangers hitter of all time. Hitting an outstanding .359 with 32 homers and 100 RBI’s, it’s hard to believe Hamilton only played in 133 games. To go even further, Hamilton led the MLB in slugging percentage and in OPS (on-base plus slugging). Who knows what would have happened if his injury hadn’t kept him out of games. But I do know one thing for sure; there is no way the Texas Rangers would have made it into the World Series without Hamilton’s power bat in the lineup.

A second chance always serves for a great “feel-good” story. In fact, just the other day I watched the Marcus Dupree 30 for 30 documentary, “The Best There Never Was”, (highly recommended by the way). Widely regarded as the best high school running back of all time, his career came to a halt when a knee injury ended his rookie USFL season. With hard work and determination, Marcus Dupree was able to do the impossible… play in the NFL. While he wasn’t performing to the best of his ability, he was able to overcome all odds and fulfill his dream…quite a Hollywood story in fact. Who knows? Maybe sooner or later there will be a Josh Hamilton or Michael Vick biopic.

Michael Vick and Josh Hamilton’s hiatus from professional sports may have been just the outlet they needed to get their head on straight. To come back after a multi-year hiatus from professional sports and be even half as good as before takes character. But to come back and contend for MVPs, World Series titles, and Super Bowls takes something special.

We are all grateful to witness the great talents of these superstars a second time around. Josh Hamilton and Michael Vick are just a few superstars that prove that second chances do pay off.


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Life as a Cowboys Fan

September 27, 2010 1 Comment

Life is good as a Cowboys fan (at least for the time being). Can’t say the same for Longhorn fans (but that’s another story). I refuse to write about my Horns until they prove to me that they can beat an unranked Pac-10 team in Austin (too specific).

But besides the horns, it’s a good week to be a Dallas sports fan. Shortly after the Longhorns collapse, the Texas Rangers clinched the AL West for the first time in 11 years. Congrats Rangers. Lets try to make it out of the first round this time. Wait, what, the Rangers will probably play the Yankees first round. You are telling me we get rewarded by playing the defending World Series Champions. Come on, hopefully it isn’t what it was back in 1999, a Yankees sweep in three games. I guess we will see if Cliff Lee can reprise his role as Yankee killer from last postseason.

On to the Cowboys. Being a loyal Cowboys fan, you never saw me lose confidence in this unbelievably talented team. The expectations for this team were so through the roof, that they nearly convinced me they would play in Dallas come February. There is part of me that would love to see this, but there is work to be done (and that’s an understatement). Sure, the Cowboys beat the Texans pretty handily with their back against the wall. I couldn’t imagine any other option taking place. Think about it, how would Jerry Jones take being the embarrassment of the National Football League for the first five weeks of the season (Note: Cowboys have a bye next Sunday). Chances are Jerry would throw out Wade Philips faster than rotten milk.  If the Cowboys lost that game, the circus would begin (not to say it hasn’t already but chaos would certainly ensue).

As for the game itself, the result is exactly what I expected. Like any other team with high expectations, you are never fully satisfied until they finally make the postseason. The Texans are a great team and all, but since their Colts beat down, they haven’t shown that same physical mentality. They have an incredible offense, but when you allow 430 pass yards in the first two games, and nearly 400 yards to the Cowboys the other day, that offense better be 2001 Rams good to keep them afloat.

Being a Cowboys fan is much like being a Yankees fan. You either love them or you hate them. There is no in between/room on the bandwagon. Lose a game, and you are on every single ESPN show imaginable, plus people throwing you under more buses than Lebron James. This is the perfect time for the Cowboys to have their bye week. Take a breather, watch that Texans game over again, and realize you are the Dallas Cowboys. You are America’s team. As PTI host Tony Kornheiser pointed out, “Dallas is the most important team in the NFL.” When the Cowboys struggle, the NFL struggles. You don’t become the most valuable franchise in professional sports ($1.85 billion) by not being successful. The mystique of the Super Bowl being held in Dallas will shortly disappear if Dallas falls out of the playoff race. The Cowboys could not afford to lose to teams like Washington or Chicago. To list some of the teams remaining on the incredibly rigid Cowboys schedule include @Minnesota, @Indianapolis, @Green Bay, and home to the Saints. Not to mention two games against Cowboy’s Kryptonite New York Giants and two more vs. the Philadelphia Eagles (with Vick back to dominance). Speaking of Vick, what a wonderful comeback story. Being a huge fan of athletic greatness, it is nice to see Vick getting a second chance to prove himself with as much talent as he possesses.

As I said in my NFL Preview (here), I had the Eagles falling short of a playoff birth. Well, I change my mind. If Vick stays healthy all season, I would kick the Giants out and replace them with the Eagles. Vick does that much. He’s like a Lebron James… can carry a team on his back to the playoffs but nothing more. His supporting cast (DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin) is much greater than he had in Atlanta, and he brought that team to the 2004 NFC title game. Is it so weird to imagine Vick being an elite QB again? I mean he’s only 30 years old (210 yrs old in dog years), and he probably did nothing but work out for those 18 months of incarceration. I don’t feel bad for Kevin Kolb either; look what happened to the last QB who backed up Vick… he got dismantled by Demarcus Ware and the Dallas Cowboys last weekend. Yes, that’s right. Many of you might not have known, but Matt Schaub backed up Vick for three seasons in Atlanta. As a Cowboys fan, I wish the Eagles the worst of luck, but can’t help but marvel at the things Vick can do.

If the Cowboys play like they are supposed to, they can hold their own in the NFC. They are only one game behind the Eagles, but they have to maintain this level of play for AT LEAST EIGHT OR NINE more games this season. With how the NFC is shaping out, more teams are looking better than I anticipated. As I mentioned in my Preview (here), the Chargers and Vikings will miss the playoffs and the Chiefs will win their division. Just look past the part where I said the 49ers will make the playoffs, and things look pretty good. So come week 6,when the matchup between overhyped 1-2 teams (Cowboys vs. Vikings) takes place, the loser is all but out of the NFC playoff race. We know one thing; the Cowboys will run the ball. Lets just hope they don’t pull a UT and run the ball for no success  (OK, I am finished bashing the awful play of my Horns). I look forward to next season (as it is has become championship or bust down in Austin, Texas.)

Growing up a Cowboys fan, I have been accustomed to expect greatness every year. Unfortunately, there was the 12-year time period post-Aikman of no playoff wins. Last season’s playoff victory over division rival Philadelphia has only left me wanting (and expecting) more. These next couple of games vs. Minnesota, Tennessee, and New York will make or break the Cowboys season. Win two, and you are only a .500 team, but win all and the division crown is back in sight. Looking forward to what the future has in store for America’s team so I will end on this note,

HOW BOUT THEM COWBOYS

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And the Heisman goes to…

September 17, 2010 1 Comment

Your 2005 Heisman

Nobody. The 2005 Heisman Trophy will be vacated thanks to Reggie Bush. But is it a big deal? Is winning the Heisman as big as it was years ago? By the sound of these rhetorical questions, can you tell which way I’m leaning?

Due to unforeseen events, Reggie Bush was muscled out of his Heisman trophy. The million-dollar question is what will happen to the 2005 Heisman? The Heisman trust recently released a statement that they will vacate the award. As much as I would love them to award it to runner-up Vince Young, things just don’t work out that way. Let’s not cry over spilled milk!

I, for one, have no problem if Reggie Bush kept the Heisman trophy. So he accepted money from a few agents, who cares? There have been much worse things by Heisman winners (see OJ Simpson). Unless Reggie Bush did something to affect his play on the field, then I don’t see what all the fuss is about. Its not like he was on steroids, or had rockets in his shoes. Bush won the award fair and square, by playing the best on the field. The voting wasn’t like this year where the top three candidates are separated by a mere 169 votes. And Ingram barely beat out Gerhart by a grand total of 28 votes. In fact, Reggie beat runner-up Vince Young by a whopping 933 votes. Unfortunately, the Heisman is awarded before all the bowl games or else things would be a lot different (see 2006 Rose Bowl). Any Heisman candidate is most likely in a bowl, if not the BCS Championship. So why no change? If you truly are the best player in college football, you will most likely play well in your bowl game. Sadly, I don’t see the Heisman Trust changing their rules, but it would be worth a look.

But nowadays, is winning the Heisman a big deal? It may be great at the time, but it surely doesn’t guarantee success at the next level. Dating back 12 years, former Heisman winners have only made three Pro Bowl appearances (Williams, Palmer 2x). Lets look at the decades past winners and see where they are now:

2000: Chris Weinke

2001: Eric Crouch

2002: Carson Palmer

2003: Jason White

2004:Matt Leinart

2005: Reggie Bush (technically nobody)

2006: Troy Smith

2007: Tim Tebow

2008: Sam Bradford

2009: Mark Ingram

Out of that list, only two (Carson Palmer and Sam Bradford) are starters in the NFL. Four are backups at their position or third-strings (Tebow, Leinart, Bush, Smith). Even Ingram is almost a backup to sophomore sensation Trenton Richardson. Then you have the final three (Weinke, Crouch, and White). Weinke was 2-18 as a starting quarterback, while holding the record for most consecutive losses for a quarterback (14). Eric Crouch was cut from the Rams roster, became 4th string QB for the Toronto Argonauts (a CFL team), and now he is salesman for playground equipment in Omaha, Nebraska. Wait, it gets worse. Jason White sure has fallen far since his 2003 Heisman and loss to LSU in the BCS Championship. White, who went undrafted, was only awarded one free agent tryout… for the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs didn’t waste any time, cutting him within the first week. White then went on to form his company, which owns an OU memorabilia store and a shoe store. I forget to mention he also worked for a securities firm in Oklahoma City. But hey, he still has a statue on the Oklahoma campus.

So who really wants the Heisman? Vince Young tweeted the other day “Just heard about Reggie’s Heisman. Reggie will continue to the be the 2005 Award recipient and I will be continued to be honored to have been in the 2005 Heisman campaign with such a talented athlete.” Is Vince saying this just to be classy, or does he truly not want to be a part of the Heisman curse. Mack Brown commented on how he would love to see Vince accept the award, emphasizing how it is a team award for the University of Texas.

If we went by this formula, then USC’s vacated 2004 Championship would be awarded to runner-up Oklahoma. The same Oklahoma that got obliterated by USC 55-19 in the 2004 BCS Championship game (48-10 after three quarters). Come on, there had to have been better teams that year.

Bush went onto say how forfeiting the trophy was not an admission of his guilt. In fact, he probably just wanted to rid himself of the Heisman NFL curse. They should change the award to “Best Individual Athlete who’s Success is Eventually Doomed.” Or, in other words, the B.I.A.S.E.D award.

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A Super-Sized NFL Preview

September 9, 2010 5 Comments

The NFL season is only a few HOURS away. We had a nice appetizer of college football last weekend, now it is time for the main course. It is unreal how much bigger football has become in America year by year. I don’t know if it’s the decline of the other major sports, or if fantasy football really is that big a deal (see here). So before things get started, I wanted to share my preseason thoughts and Stick’s Picks for division winners. Before you make your predictions, hear me out first. (Warning: long article but worth the read)

AFC North- Lets starts off with one of the strongest divisions in football. There has been a lot of movement between each team in the off-season so don’t expect the Bengals to repeat their 6-0 division record. I still believe the Steelers have the best talent in this division, but you have to account for the first four games of the year during Roethlisberger’s suspension. If Pittsburgh can manage two wins during these games, they can stay afloat until Big Ben returns. Not to mention, the return of one of the best safeties in the game (Polamalu) can’t hurt either. As for the most-intriguing storyline, the T-Ocho show. Not many teams have players with their own reality show, let alone two.The Bengals did fine last year without TO so why do they take on the extra headache. They even went as far as to forfeit millions of dollars to Antonio Bryant to leave room for their deep receiving corps. However, I love the concept of Jordan Shipley in the slot. Shipley possesses everything of a Wes Welker and more (taller, faster), so things might be looking up for Cincinnati. My only concern with the Bengals is Carson Palmer. Can he be the Heisman winner of old, or will all this new talent force him to make more mistakes? Another contender, the Baltimore Ravens, have been the hot pick for a Super Bowl contender. First of all, whenever there is a hot pick for the Super Bowl, that team hardly ever makes it. The Ravens have a solid offense with the acquisition of Boldin and Houshmandzadeh, in addition to the development of Ray Rice and Joe Flacco. But I am concerned with their defense. Yes, I am worried about the Raven’s defense. How quickly things have changed when a team can goes from one of the best defenses of all time to a shaky defense. Other than Ed Reed and an aging Ray Lewis, this defense has lost its step. I’ll finish up with a quick look at the Cleveland Browns. If the Browns manage to get more than four wins this season that is an accomplishment in my book. Signing Jake Delhomme after one of the worst quarterback performances and drafting Colt McCoy in the third round tells me this team is not ready for prime time. Sorry Cleveland, but may the curse of Lebron James be forever haunted in Cleveland sports.

Stick’s Pick: Cincinnati Bengals

AFC East- From a strong division to maybe even a stronger one. Beginning with the Buffalo Bills. The Bills will be awful, end of discussion. On to the Patriots, my sleeper team. The Patriots are like a Nintendo 64. Awesome until better things like the Playstation II and Xbox arrived. But, technology has advanced so rapidly, that you may have more fun playing Nintendo 64. That in a nutshell is the 2010 New England Patriots. They used to be great until more teams started improving, but then you realize the Patriots are still a great team! Last I checked Tom Brady is still a three-time Super Bowl champion. Other than Moss and Brady, only three other players are over 30 years old.  The Patriots are once again a young team. Not since 2001 did the Patriots have a team with such young talent (and Adam Viniateri sure knows what happened that season). The Miami Dolphins are also in the process of having an improved team this season. Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano (no, not Tony Soprano) have worked their magic to transform this Dolphin team from a one-win team to a ten-win playoff caliber team in the course of three seasons. When you have a good defense, two Pro-Bowl caliber running backs, and a Quarterback with a strong arm, things tend to work out in the end. Plus, the wildcat offense is still a force to be reckoned with. This leads me to the self-proclaimed AFC East powerhouse, the New York Jets. Having watched every episode of Hard Knocks, the Jets are my sentimental favorite to win the division. I don’t know if it’s Rex Ryan’s glowing personality, the emergence of Mark Sanchez or, the resurgence of LT, but I like the Jets for double digit wins this season. Oh yes, and I forgot to mention the Jets league-best defense. Even before the Darrelle Revis signing, the Jets were still a top defense in the NFL. So adding the NFL’s best defensive back can’t hurt. Like I said about the Texas Longhorns (here), with a deep running game and an elite defense, it’s going to be tough to beat this team.

Stick’s Pick: New York Jets
Wild Card: New England Patriots

AFC West- The second-worst division in football (congratulations NFC West for being the worst). I was shocked to see Vegas predicting the Chargers to win eleven games or more this season. I personally have jumped headfirst off the Chargers bandwagon. The Chargers still have Gates and Rivers but it’s tough losing your best running back, defensive back, and receiver all in one off-season. Another thing I’d like to point out, Ryan Matthews is one of the most overrated rookies I have seen in recent memory. Do people not realize this is one of the worst offensive lines in professional football? On to another over-rated team, the Denver Broncos. Any team that has more than one quarterback has no quarterback. When I honestly believe Tim Tebow will be the starting quarterback by the end of the season, that isn’t a good sign. The Oakland Raiders will continue being the Oakland Raiders. A major quarterback improvement might get them to seven wins but nothing more. My dark horse for this division is the Kansas City Chiefs. Charlie Weis at offensive coordinator, Romeo Crennel at defensive coordinator, and Matt Cassell at quarterback. I see they are still trying to capture that Patriots magic a few seasons back. My only concern with this team is the head coach Todd Haley. His resume (or lack thereof) doesn’t quite fit in with his other coaches. I predict eight or nine wins from this division.

Stick’s Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

AFC South- The official division of the Indianapolis Colts. As long as Peyton Manning is under center, the Colts are the easiest lock in professional football. So, let’s look at the three other teams possibly fighting for a wildcard spot. Jacksonville reached its peak a few years ago, and nowadays, all they are good for is Maurice Jones-Drew’s fantasy numbers. The Texans have been on the cusp of a playoff birth for who knows how long. Both Schaub and Andre had career seasons last year, and that still left them sitting at home. If I led the Texans, Kubiak would be on the hot seat. When every analyst has been picking the Texans as their sleeper playoff pick, it goes to show you that lack of talent isn’t the issue… possibly the lack of coaching? And to Texans players: let’s focus on making the playoffs before you say your goal is to get to the Super Bowl. On to the Titans. The Titans are one of those teams with the same odds of losing ten games as they do winning ten. I have them winning ten. Despite what you may say, Chris Johnson and the Titans O-line are as good as you think. Vince Young showed last season that he doesn’t need to be the man. It’s a tough adjustment to make going from first fiddle all your life to second fiddle (just ask Lebron James).

Stick’s Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Wild Card: Tennessee Titans

NFC West: Starting from the weakest division to the strongest. The NFC West is by far the weakest division in football. When a team has a legit shot to win the division at 7-9 that speaks for itself. So with that in mind, I’ll go quickly. The St Louis Rams have a rookie quarterback, the Cardinals lost Kurt Warner (huge loss), and the Seahawks have no talent (quick, name four good players on the Seahawks). That leaves San Francisco. Mike Singletary has transformed a once dying franchise back into the spotlight. Last year, the 49ers defense allowed the fourth fewest points in the league. Their offense is still a work in progress, but all the tools are in place. I am expecting a lot from running back Frank Gore this season, or else (he is on most of my fantasy teams). Only question mark is quarterback Alex Smith. If he is even half as good as his top pick status, San Francisco will easily run away with this division. With six games against their divisional foes and four games against the AFC west, the 49ers have one of the EASIEST schedules in the league.

Stick’s Pick: San Francisco 49ers

NFC North- This division might see a lot of movement versus last year. After some research, it’s looking like the Bears, Lions, and even Vikings might all have similar records this season. This may not surprise some, but it will most definitely surprise the Viking’s bandwagon. I’m sorry Vikings fans but I can’t support a team that sells their soul each season for a washed up quarterback. Are Joe Webb and Tavaris Jackson that bad? Don’t answer that. This team is aging and aging quickly. Other than Adrian Peterson, there isn’t one healthy offensive star on this team. And let’s not forget, Peterson hasn’t always had a clean bill of health either. The Vikings hit their peak last year, and now it’s a long way down. I’m sorry Brett, but you should have hung it up while you had the chance. In contrast, I am putting a lot of stock in the Lions, because they are on the rise. The NFL is a sport that prevents one team from being down for too long. Unlike college football, there are few talent disparities between each team, and the NFL Draft means everything. So with years of patience and some smart roster moves, things will work out in the future. It isn’t hard to argue the Lion’s offense will eventually be great. Stafford throwing to Calvin “Megatron” Johnson” and a healthy Brandon Pettigrew lead to good things. Not to mention, speedy Jahvid Best is a nice addition too. The Lions Achilles heel has been their defense. Just like anything else, improvement takes time. And adding Ndamukong “Donkey Kong” Suh can’t hurt. Suh brings to the Lions what every successful NFL team needs… toughness (check this out if you aren’t sure Suh). As for the Bears, adding offensive coordinator Mike Martz, former Rams coach and offensive mastermind, will hopefully wake up Jay Cutler and make Chicago relevant again. But who knows? The Bears are just like the Titans, the talent is there, but you just never know what’s going to happen. The Green Bay Packers are the hottest team on the planet. I know preseason doesn’t mean anything, but when you are dropping 60 points in a game I don’t care if it’s a team scrimmage. I am “all-in” with the Packers offense this season. Their defense might not have played up to par in the playoffs last season, but their offense makes up for it. Ask the New Orleans Saints! Their offense was so great, that their defense was constantly playing with the lead (and believe me, that changes everything). Don’t forget the Packers had one of the best point differentials last season with 10.2 (only trailing the Saints at 10.6). For those who don’t understand this, the average playoff team differential is five, so needless to say 10 is darn good. I like Aaron Rodgers for a possible MVP candidate this season, as well as the Packers to lock down home field in the NFC. And we all know what Lambeau Field is like come January.

Stick’s Pick: Green Bay Packers

NFC South- This division is always a toss-up. I don’t care if one team did win the Super Bowl last year, the NFC South is missing one thing: consistency. An interesting statistic for you: the last place team in this division has won their division the following year six of the past eight seasons. Sadly, I don’t see this crazy statistic carrying over to this season. Sorry, Tampa Bay. If Tampa Bay wins four or more games this year, I will be shocked. I am not a Carolina fan either. Both Matt Moore and Jimmy Claussen have great upside, but this isn’t their year. Give Claussen a few seasons and he will have Carolina back on top. Then there are the Atlanta Falcons. I believe this is the year the Falcons finally put it together and make a playoff run. If Turner can stay healthy, and their defense is up for the task, I have them winning this division. In the past eight seasons, never has a team in this division held the crown two years in a row. So I award this year’s division crown to the Atlanta Falcons. Last but not least, the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints. There is no arguing with the Saints’ 31.9 points per game last season. Their defense made huge strides from the previous season, and was one of the primary reasons they took home the Lombardi trophy (the other being Drew Brees). Just like the Packers, the Saints need to keep their offense at a high level to take much needed pressure off their defense. It would be unpatriotic to have the Saints sitting home after their championship last season.

Stick’s Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Wild Card: New Orleans Saints

NFC East-Finally, the NFC East. As some famous person once said, “Always finish strong.” This division is widely known as one of the best in professional football. You have the Redskins, the Eagles, the New York “Football” Giants, and of course America’s Team. Starting off with one of the more intriguing off-season storylines: the Washington Redskins. There is Albert Haynesworth’s inability to run 300 yards for $15 million, the acquisition of Mr. Eagle (Donovan McNabb), and of course acquiring Hall-of-Fame coach Mike Shanahan. Dan Snyder must love himself for the amount of media coverage this team is generating. Are the Redskins relevant again? Maybe so. As stated in my fantasy article (here), I love Clinton Portis to have a productive season this year under offensive guru Shanahan. And when does Donovan McNabb not give NFC East divisional foes’ problems? All I know, is it’s going to be an interesting Sunday night game with the Redskins and Cowboys. The Philadelphia Eagles also feel pretty good about themselves. I mean they traded six-time Pro-Bowler and the best statistical Eagle QB of all time within their division. All of this so they can develop their 2007 second-round draft pick out of the University of Houston. It is obvious this team wants to get younger (releasing Hall of Famer Brian Westbrook too). But the main consequence of getting younger: you can’t win now. This Eagles’ team can’t win now. Look for Kolb to struggle out of the gate, as well as head-case receiver DeSean Jackson. Jackson is surely going to miss McNabb’s ability to throw the deep ball. Then you have the New York “Football” Giants. This team is somehow flying under the national radar. Last I checked, just two seasons ago they knocked off the undefeated New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. So this team is still good. Pencil them in every year for at least eight wins, and the rest is up to Eli. The defense that was once dominant finished third to last in the league allowing 27.3 points per game. I fully expect this defense to turn things around, and finish as a top ten defense in the league. And let’s not forget, the Giants are the Cowboy’s kryptonite. Speaking of the Dallas Cowboys, this is their year. 2700 words later, and I can finally talk about MY Cowboys. I had the pleasure of obtaining a field pass for this year’s Cowboys training camp, and sat in on Jerry’s press conference. You could tell in Jerry’s tone that this stadium was constructed for the sole purpose of having the Cowboys play in it for the Super Bowl. Never has a NFL team played the Super Bowl in their home stadium. Did I mention this is the 50th anniversary of the Dallas Cowboys franchise? Did I mention this is the most talented roster Dallas has put together since the 1996 Super Bowl team? Time is ticking. Almost everyone in this organization (except for Jerry Jones) is on the hot seat. Then you add the second-toughest schedule in the league (Texans with the hardest), and things don’t get easier for Tony Romo. This was the NFL’s 2nd best defense last season (only trailing the Jets). They have the perfect speed-power running back combo, a stacked receiver corps, the league’s best tight end, and a celebrity Quarterback. Plus, no other NFL owner had a role in HBO’s “Entourage”. In football terms, this is the year of the Cowboys. As long as the hole in the roof stays open, God will be able to watch his team shine.

Stick’s Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Wild Card: New York Giants

As they say on Monday Night Football, “ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?”

Feel free to leave feedback and/or comments.

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A Longhorn’s Perspective

September 3, 2010 1 Comment

College football has begun. I have never been one to get super excited over college football (other than my Longhorns), but this season is a little different. The one flaw that college football possesses is its predictability. If you aren’t ranked in the top 10 in the preseason, your chances are slim in making it to the BCS Championship game. However, this season is unlike any other. Having lost loads of talent to the NFL Draft, the field is more open than ever before. With that in mind, here are a few things to watch for as college football gets underway.

Overrated Teams: I could list a million teams here but only a few come to mind.
First of all, Boise State will not make the BCS Championship game. There have been a group of ignorant reporters and analysts who actually believe this could be a possibility. Realistically, the top teams would have to lose twice for the BCS to give the nod to Boise. Otherwise, it just doesn’t make sense. It’s already unfair letting teams from weaker conferences play in a BCS game, so how would it be letting Boise play? As long as I am watching college football, I highly doubt a Cinderella team would make the BCS Championship game. Butler may have made it in basketball, but this is football. The disparity between each team is that much greater. Would it make sense letting the minor league champion play the major league champion for the title? No! Sadly, one of the biggest games of the season comes this Monday when the Virginia Tech Hokies take on the Boise State Broncos. If Boise State manages to squeeze by with the victory, they are looking at smooth sailing to another undefeated season. I am shocked Chris Pederson is still the head coach at Boise. As long as they play in their little cupcake conference, they can go on a 50 game winning streak and still not play in the BCS Championship game. So if I were Pederson, there must be more lucrative deals with at least a chance of winning a title (He must not have gotten the memo).

When I think, “overrated”, another team comes to mind… the Nebraska Cornhuskers. They open the season in the Coaches poll top 10, having lost four games last year. Forget the infamous one-point debacle vs. Texas; they also lost to Iowa State at home last year. They may have a great defense, but there is no way I see them being half as good as they were last year. Last I checked, you can stop the other teams offense, but then you have to score yourself. This brings me to Zac Lee. Arguably, the worst quarterback in the Big 12 is in danger of losing his starting spot to a walk-on (pathetic). I was watching college football live the other day, and noticed they had Nebraska going undefeated into late November. I’m not even sure they can beat Washington in week 3. This Washington team might have struggled to stop their opponents but they had no problem putting points on the board. And, Jake Locker is heads above Zac Lee (and that’s an understatement).

Championship Rematch: Is a BCS Championship rematch that farfetched? Hold on a second while I put on my burnt orange sunglasses. Alabama is the hot pick to return to the title game, only losing a couple starters. I can’t argue with this; I like Alabama just as much as the next person. But there is one thing that worries me… history. In the BCS era, there has never been a team to repeat as BCS champions. No, not even the self-proclaimed best team of all time… the 2005 USC Trojans. USC learned the hard way that it wasn’t easy to repeat (just ask Vince Young). This Alabama team doesn’t have mind-blowing talent like past BCS champions. I will never forget Colt McCoy going down in the Rose Bowl. Nick Saban knew that Texas was too much for Alabama. Why else would he fake punt in the first quarter?

Speaking of Texas, I wanted to take the time to give my quick opinion on this year’s team. Of course, the ignorant sports reporters think no Colt McCoy, no elite team. I strongly disagree with this statement. There might have been one game, at most, where I was impressed with Colt and truly believe he was the difference in the game (the A&M game.) So why can’t Gilbert be just as good? He is much more talented, and is now in a run-first system. Texas’ three-headed monster at running back (Johnson, Newton, and Whittaker) is the first step to their return to the title game. The second step… our defense. I have attended a few Mack Brown press conferences and he keeps reiterating this could be the best defense he has ever had at UT. That’s no joking statement. In the past ten years, there have been 22 Texas defensive players who are now currently playing in the NFL. In this new era of college football, it doesn’t take an elite quarterback to be successful. A good running game, few turnovers, and a good defense can take you as far as you want to go. Look at the New York Jets last season; a rookie QB Mark Sanchez took his team to the AFC Championship game. And you can’t honestly tell me that Greg McElroy was the reason Alabama won the national championship. Texas will most likely be favored in all their games this season so the ball is in Gilbert’s hands. If Gilbert can take care of the ball, and put the game in the hands of the defense, Texas could be heading back to the title game.

Heisman Candidates- This year’s Heisman crop doesn’t immediately have a clear-cut favorite. After the Texas-Texas A&M game last Thanksgiving, the Jerrod Johnson bandwagon is officially rolling (And I don’t blame them either). One question I do propose is: Where was Johnson in the other games? A 36% completion percentage vs. Oklahoma, 46% vs. Kansas State, and a 51% vs. Arkansas don’t scream Heisman contender in my mind. If he can do what he did vs. Texas (26-33 342 yds, 4 TDs) then I’ll buy him as a strong Heisman contender. That is of course if A&M is relevant this year. Reigning Heisman candidate Mark Ingram has a 0% chance of taking home the hardware for a second year in a row. Voters currently will never vote in a Heisman two times. It also doesn’t help that many analysts are saying backup Trenton Richardson is better than Ingram. My personal pick has to be Terrelle Pryor. Pryor is the one of the best players on one of the best teams in the nation. As long as his stats are consistently good, the Heisman is his to lose. I’m missing boatloads of other Heisman contenders, which just go to show you how open the field is this year.

Stay tuned for many more updates throughout the college football season. If it is what I expect, it may be one of the more wacky seasons in awhile.

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A Fantasy World

August 24, 2010 1 Comment

It’s finally here. Football is less than a few weeks away and that means fantasy football is even closer. From something that started as a novelty game has now grown into a multi-billion dollar industry. No offense to the other sports but when it comes to fantasy, football is king. Take it from me, I have been a fantasy player since 2000, and football is the highlight of my fantasy season.

Fantasy football has most definitely put football in the spotlight like never before. As seen by increased TV ratings, ticket sales, and more media coverage than the presidential election, football is back on top. Search fantasy football on Google and you get 108 million hits. Heck that’s more results than Justin Bieber (which is saying something). Nothing dramatic has changed in football since the 1960’s so the sudden spike couldn’t be from just the game itself.

Fantasy sports are more than just a game… it is a part-time job. From days and days of analysis, the mock drafts, even the TV shows, there is always knowledge to be learned. You could ask any fantasy player how long they spend preparing and researching their drafts and almost all of them will say more than a day (or at least for the good players.) It is every man’s dream to be a sports general manager, and fantasy sports makes that happen.

Just like poker, fantasy football success isn’t necessarily guaranteed. You may have the best odds, but the cards don’t usually fall as expected. Every year, new players make a name for themselves in fantasy, and there is hardly ever such a thing as a sure thing. Undoubtedly, a team’s third-string running back may emerge as the star of your team. Try saying that for other fantasy sports. Like most players, I have had plenty of experience with fantasy misfortune. Sometimes you just have to face the facts that you might be playing Chris Johnson the day he gets 300 yards… that’s just how it works.

But we know one thing for sure… fantasy football makes Sundays relevant again. No longer are they the day of rest. DirecTV anticipated this first. A few years ago, it didn’t make sense to get NFL Sunday Ticket. Being a Cowboys fan, why would I care if Tom Brady threw a TD pass in a 42-0 rout of the Dolphins? I’ll tell you why, in fantasy every point matters. I have had many weeks where a win or loss came down to the final plays of a game.

Also, Fantasy Football has finally hit the mainstream. In fact, it has gone so mainstream that Hollywood is even getting involved. FX’s new hit show, “The League”, evolves around the lives of middle-aged men and how their one bond is fantasy football. Folks, if you haven’t seen this show, I strongly recommend it.

This wouldn’t be a fantasy football article if I didn’t share my fantasy tips for the upcoming season. Entering my 10th fantasy season, I feel like I learn something new every year. For example, this year I would say it is best not to draft a Quarterback too high in your draft. Unless you have Drew Brees or Peyton Manning at your disposal, I wouldn’t use a valuable pick on a QB. In fact, this may even be the year that running backs are losing their value as well (except for the Petersons and the Johnsons). In a recent draft, I managed to snag five of the top 20 running backs and still have a decent team. It goes to show you how significantly things change each year when I’m getting Ladainian Tomlinson in the 14th round. Wasn’t this my first round pick last year (Yes, yes it was)? More than ever before, elite wide receivers are at a premium. With the abundance of above-average QB’s and RB’s available, if you have a chance to draft a top 5 WR, I would strongly recommend it. Another draft tip I would give is to draft the lone wolf. A lone wolf is a player who is “the guy” at their respective position. Despite my bias, drafting Felix Jones or Marion Barber isn’t a good value pick because they would end up splitting carries and touchdowns resulting in splitting points. I want the guy who could get 40 carries or 10 receptions a game. At least I know when his team doesn’t perform, he still is going to produce. And my final rule is don’t draft a tight end, kicker, or defense until all your other positions are filled (including backups). Don’t fall for the guy getting Dallas Clark in the fifth round, or the Jets Defense in the sixth round (its just a rookie move). These are the positions that you can pick up on a weekly basis and not miss a beat.

On to my sleeper pick. Last year I spent a good amount of time thinking of possible sleeper picks for the upcoming season. For a job interview, I was asked to give my sleeper pick and explain why. I came to a conclusion that Cedric Benson was going to have a breakout year, and 1251 yards later, he did (no joke). An improved Bengals offensive line, a change of scenery, and a good passing game was all I needed to make my sleeper pick. This year, I’m putting my money on Clinton Portis. Ever since Portis became a Redskin, his production has been awful. But I believe that with the addition of an elite QB (Donovan McNabb) and a run-first head coach (Mike Shanahan) that things are looking up for Portis. Portis has had his best seasons under Shanahan, and I believe he will exceed expectations this year. Portis isn’t going to cost you much in your draft… I just selected him in the 10th round in mine.

Like anything with success, there must be change every year. This year I am thinking of taking on the challenge of an auction draft. This is as simple as it sounds; instead of drafting players round-by-round, you just bid on each player individually. This involves a lot more research, but that’s how you play the game. Anyways, back to work, my team isn’t going to draft itself.

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